MIA⇄KCR

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net +$8.8M net +1.6

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2000 odds 3% → 4% (+1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Sean McNally1B·27y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#443 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Herk Robinson net −$8.8M net -1.6

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $27M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -1.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2000 odds 2% → 2% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Todd DunwoodyOF·25y·L/L

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -1.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

-0.06/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.