LAD⇄MIA

LADLAD Kevin Malone net +$0.8M net +0.4

received +$20.0M+$20.0M ± $53M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 6.1 ± 7 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1999 odds 16% → 17% (+1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Craig Counsell2B/3B/SS·28y·L/R

+$20.4M+$20.4M± $53M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 6.1± 7 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

1.29/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net −$0.8M net -0.4

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $25M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 1999 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ryan MoskauP·21y·R/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#186 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.