RRosternomics
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Dodgers LAD

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GM: Ned Colletti

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.07× league · TAB +4.6
+4.6TAB — talent above budget10th/30
-0.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)16th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars11th/30
-4.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag5th/30
37%dead money %15th/30
0.509win %13th/30
39.5roster fWAR10th/30
-5surplus $M (value vs cost)12th/30
$102Mpayroll $M11th/30

Roster

CFMatt Kemp 159GTony Gwynn Jr. 12GTrent Oeltjen 1G
LFTony Gwynn Jr. 110GJuan Rivera 56GJerry Sands 41G
RFAndre Ethier 126GJerry Sands 22GJuan Rivera 17G
SSJamey Carroll 66GDee Strange-Gordon 54GJustin Sellers 19G
2BJamey Carroll 81GAaron Miles 72GJuan Uribe 18G
3BAaron Miles 61GJuan Uribe 59GCasey Blake 45G
1BJames Loney 150GJuan Rivera 38GCasey Blake 8G
STARTERSClayton Kershaw 7.8WARChad Billingsley 2.9WARHiroki Kuroda 2.8WARTed Lilly 1.8WARRubby De La Rosa 0.7WAR
CRod Barajas 88GDioner Navarro 54GA.J. Ellis 29G
DHAndre Ethier 2GMatt Kemp 2GMarcus Thames 2G
BULLPEN★ Javy Guerra 21svMike MacDougal 14hMatt Guerrier 13hKenley Jansen 9hBlake Hawksworth 7hScott Elbert 7hHung-Chih Kuo 3hJosh Lindblom 3h
CRod Barajas 88 · Dioner Navarro 54 · A.J. Ellis 29
1BJames Loney 150 · Juan Rivera 38 · Casey Blake 8
2BJamey Carroll 81 · Aaron Miles 72 · Juan Uribe 18
3BAaron Miles 61 · Juan Uribe 59 · Casey Blake 45
SSJamey Carroll 66 · Dee Strange-Gordon 54 · Justin Sellers 19
LFTony Gwynn Jr. 110 · Juan Rivera 56 · Jerry Sands 41
CFMatt Kemp 159 · Tony Gwynn Jr. 12 · Trent Oeltjen 1
RFAndre Ethier 126 · Jerry Sands 22 · Juan Rivera 17
DHAndre Ethier 2 · Matt Kemp 2 · Marcus Thames 2
SPClayton Kershaw 7.8 · Chad Billingsley 2.9 · Hiroki Kuroda 2.8 · Ted Lilly 1.8 · Rubby De La Rosa 0.7
BP★ Javy Guerra 21 · Mike MacDougal 14 · Matt Guerrier 13 · Kenley Jansen 9 · Blake Hawksworth 7 · Scott Elbert 7 · Hung-Chih Kuo 3 · Josh Lindblom 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2011 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Matt Kemp 26 arb 1618.3 7.1 +13.2
Clayton Kershaw 23 arb 337.8 0.5 +18.7
Andre Ethier 29 arb 1353.0 9.5 -2.2
Chad Billingsley 26 arb 322.9 6.3 +0.7
Hiroki Kuroda 36 arb 322.8 11.8 -4.9
James Loney 27 arb 1582.1 4.9 +0.2
Jamey Carroll 37 FA-elig 1462.1 2.3 +2.8
Ted Lilly 35 FA-elig 341.8 8.2 -3.8
Kenley Jansen 23 pre-arb 511.6 0.4 +3.5
Tony Gwynn Jr. 28 arb 1361.6 0.7 +3.1
Casey Blake 37 FA-elig 631.0 5.5 -3.1
Matt Guerrier 32 FA-elig 700.8 1.5 +0.4
Juan Rivera↔ TOR 32 FA-elig 620.7 2.5 -0.7
Rubby De La Rosa 22 – 130.7 0.3 +1.5
Aaron Miles 34 FA-elig 1360.7 0.5 +1.3
Justin Sellers 25 pre-arb 360.7 0.4 +1.3
Josh Lindblom 24 – 270.7 0.4 +1.3
Jerry Sands 23 pre-arb 610.7 0.4 +1.3
Scott Elbert 25 pre-arb 470.6 0.4 +1.0
Dee Strange-Gordon 23 – 560.6 0.4 +1.0
Javy Guerra 25 – 470.6 0.4 +1.0
Dana Eveland 27 – 50.5 – –
Rod Barajas 35 FA-elig 980.3 3.2 -2.4
A.J. Ellis 30 arb 310.2 0.4 +0.1
Blake Hawksworth 28 pre-arb 490.2 0.4 +0.0
Trent Oeltjen 28 – 610.2 – –
Nathan Eovaldi 21 – 100.2 0.1 +0.3
Vicente Padilla 33 FA-elig 90.1 2.0 -1.6
Jon Garland 31 FA-elig 90.0 5.0 -4.9
Tim Federowicz 23 – 70.0 0.4 -0.3
Juan Castro 39 – 70.0 – –
Juan Uribe 32 FA-elig 770.0 5.3 -5.3
Mike MacDougal 34 FA-elig 69-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Jamie Hoffmann 26 – 2-0.1 – –
Hector Gimenez 28 arb 4-0.1 0.4 -0.6
John Ely 25 – 5-0.1 – –
Xavier Paul↔ PIT 26 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Russell Mitchell 26 – 25-0.2 – –
Ramon Troncoso 28 arb 18-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Jonathan Broxton 27 FA-elig 14-0.2 7.0 -7.6
Dioner Navarro 27 FA-elig 64-0.2 1.0 -1.6
Lance Cormier 30 FA-elig 9-0.3 1.2 -1.9
Rafael Furcal↔ STL 33 FA-elig 37-0.3 5.5 -6.2
Jay Gibbons 34 FA-elig 24-0.3 0.7 -1.4
Hung-Chih Kuo 29 FA-elig 40-0.3 2.7 -3.5
Marcus Thames 34 FA-elig 36-0.4 1.0 -2.0
Iván De Jesús Jr. 24 pre-arb 17-0.5 0.4 -1.6
Eugenio Velez 29 – 34-0.7 – –

Key additions (new vs 2010)

PlayerfWAR
Tony Gwynn Jr.1.6
Matt Guerrier0.8
Juan Rivera0.7
Rubby De La Rosa0.7
Aaron Miles0.7
Justin Sellers0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2010)

Player2010 fWAR
Russell Martin3.1
Manny Ramirez0.9
Blake DeWitt0.9
Reed Johnson0.3
Travis Schlichting0.2
Ryan Theriot0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2011 payroll
$102.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 2011, 2011–2017. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Andre Ethier2911.153$9.5M$10.9M$13.5M$15.5M$18.0M$18.0M$17.5M
Ted Lilly3510.102$8.2M$10.5M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Rafael Furcal3311.000$5.5MFREE AGENT
Casey Blake378.138$5.5MFREE AGENT
Juan Uribe329.089$5.3M$8.0M$8.0M$6.5M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Jon Garland3110.071$5.0MFREE AGENT
Rod Barajas3510.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Hung-Chih Kuo296.000$2.7MFREE AGENT
Juan Rivera328.047$2.5M$4.0MFREE AGENT
Jamey Carroll378.020$2.3MFREE AGENT
Vicente Padilla3312.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Guerrier326.056$1.5M$4.8M$3.3MFREE AGENT
Marcus Thames349.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jay Gibbons347.057$650kFREE AGENT
Mike MacDougal346.039$500k$650kFREE AGENT
Aaron Miles348.000$500kFREE AGENT
Juan Castro3916.000—FREE AGENT
Dana Eveland276.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Hiroki Kuroda363.000$11.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Kemp264.049$7.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Broxton275.020$7.0MFREE AGENT
Chad Billingsley264.110$6.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
James Loney274.012$4.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Lance Cormier305.154$1.2MFREE AGENT
Dioner Navarro275.046$1.0MFREE AGENT
Tony Gwynn Jr.285.000$675kFREE AGENT
Hector Gimenez285.000$425kFREE AGENT
Ramon Troncoso283.087$414kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eugenio Velez294.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Clayton Kershaw232.105$500kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Hawksworth282.000$426kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Ellis301.062$421kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kenley Jansen230.072$416kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Sellers251.124$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javy Guerra250.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Elbert250.100$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dee Strange-Gordon230.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Lindblom240.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Iván De Jesús Jr.240.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Federowicz230.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerry Sands231.142$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rubby De La Rosa220.000$313kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nathan Eovaldi210.000$120kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Paul262.119$23kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Russell Mitchell26–—
Trent Oeltjen28–—
Jamie Hoffmann26–—
John Ely250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Dodgers 2011; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.