RRosternomics
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Dodgers LAD

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GM: Ned Colletti

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↗ rising
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.28× league · TAB -2.6
-2.6TAB — talent above budget19th/30
+0.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)16th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars7th/30
-5.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag19th/30
39%dead money %19th/30
0.531win %13th/30
34.7roster fWAR16th/30
-44surplus $M (value vs cost)25th/30
$128Mpayroll $M6th/30

Roster

CFShane Victorino 109GMatt Kemp 105GTony Gwynn Jr. 53G
LFBobby Abreu 52GShane Victorino 48GTony Gwynn Jr. 38G
RFAndre Ethier 146GScott Van Slyke 12GJuan Rivera 10G
SSDee Strange-Gordon 79GHanley Ramirez 57GLuis Alfonso Cruz 24G
2BMark Ellis 110GJerry Hairston Jr. 30GNick Punto 26G
3BHanley Ramirez 98GLuis Alfonso Cruz 51GJuan Uribe 46G
1BAdrián González 151GJuan Rivera 54GScott Van Slyke 5G
STARTERSClayton Kershaw 6.4WARChad Billingsley 3.0WARChris Capuano 2.6WARAaron Harang 1.8WARJoe Blanton 0.7WAR
CA.J. Ellis 131GMatt Treanor 35GTim Federowicz 2G
DHBobby Abreu 4GIván De Jesús Jr. 2GAndre Ethier 2G
BULLPEN★ Kenley Jansen 25svRonald Belisario 23hRandy Choate 20hScott Elbert 9hBrandon League 8hJamey Wright 6hJavy Guerra 4hShawn Tolleson 2h
CA.J. Ellis 131 · Matt Treanor 35 · Tim Federowicz 2
1BAdrián González 151 · Juan Rivera 54 · Scott Van Slyke 5
2BMark Ellis 110 · Jerry Hairston Jr. 30 · Nick Punto 26
3BHanley Ramirez 98 · Luis Alfonso Cruz 51 · Juan Uribe 46
SSDee Strange-Gordon 79 · Hanley Ramirez 57 · Luis Alfonso Cruz 24
LFBobby Abreu 52 · Shane Victorino 48 · Tony Gwynn Jr. 38
CFShane Victorino 109 · Matt Kemp 105 · Tony Gwynn Jr. 53
RFAndre Ethier 146 · Scott Van Slyke 12 · Juan Rivera 10
DHBobby Abreu 4 · Iván De Jesús Jr. 2 · Andre Ethier 2
SPClayton Kershaw 6.4 · Chad Billingsley 3.0 · Chris Capuano 2.6 · Aaron Harang 1.8 · Joe Blanton 0.7
BP★ Kenley Jansen 25 · Ronald Belisario 23 · Randy Choate 20 · Scott Elbert 9 · Brandon League 8 · Jamey Wright 6 · Javy Guerra 4 · Shawn Tolleson 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Clayton Kershaw 24 arb 346.4 7.5 +9.1
Matt Kemp 27 FA-elig 1063.8 10.0 -0.2
Chad Billingsley 27 FA-elig 253.0 9.0 -1.2
Andre Ethier 30 FA-elig 1493.0 10.9 -3.2
A.J. Ellis 31 arb 1332.6 0.5 +6.3
Chris Capuano 33 FA-elig 342.6 3.0 +3.7
Mark Ellis 35 FA-elig 1102.3 2.5 +3.3
Luis Alfonso Cruz 28 – 782.2 – –
Kenley Jansen 24 pre-arb 652.1 0.5 +4.9
Aaron Harang 34 FA-elig 311.8 3.0 +1.6
Hanley Ramirez↔ MIA 28 FA-elig 641.5 6.1 -2.2
Jerry Hairston Jr. 36 FA-elig 781.0 2.2 +0.4
Ronald Belisario 29 arb 680.9 0.5 +1.9
Joe Blanton↔ PHI 31 FA-elig 100.7 3.4 -1.6
Adrián González↔ BOS 30 FA-elig 360.7 4.9 -3.2
Ted Lilly 36 FA-elig 80.7 10.5 -8.8
Shane Victorino↔ PHI 31 FA-elig 530.6 3.3 -1.7
Nathan Eovaldi↔ MIA 22 – 100.6 0.2 +1.2
Jamey Wright 37 FA-elig 660.5 0.9 +0.4
Javy Guerra 26 pre-arb 450.5 0.5 +0.7
Brandon League↔ SEA 29 FA-elig 280.5 1.9 -0.7
Josh Beckett↔ BOS 32 FA-elig 70.5 4.2 -3.1
Adam Kennedy 36 FA-elig 860.5 0.8 +0.4
Nick Punto↔ BOS 34 FA-elig 220.4 0.4 +0.8
Stephen Fife 25 – 50.4 0.5 +0.4
Justin Sellers 26 pre-arb 190.2 0.5 +0.1
Bobby Abreu↔ ANA 38 FA-elig 920.2 8.3 -7.8
Scott Elbert 26 arb 430.1 0.5 -0.1
Elian Herrera 27 – 670.1 – –
Todd Coffey 31 FA-elig 230.1 1.0 -0.8
Paco Rodríguez 21 – 110.1 0.5 -0.3
Juan Uribe 33 FA-elig 660.1 8.0 -7.9
Iván De Jesús Jr.↔ BOS 25 pre-arb 230.0 0.4 -0.2
Shawn Tolleson 24 – 400.0 0.5 -0.4
Tim Federowicz 24 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Mike MacDougal 35 FA-elig 7-0.0 0.7 -0.7
Rubby De La Rosa 23 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Jerry Sands 24 – 9-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Josh Wall 25 – 7-0.1 0.5 -0.6
John Ely 26 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Randy Choate↔ MIA 36 FA-elig 36-0.1 0.7 -1.0
Alex Castellanos 25 – 16-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Scott Van Slyke 25 – 27-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Matt Guerrier 33 FA-elig 16-0.4 4.8 -5.7
Josh Lindblom↔ PHI 25 pre-arb 48-0.4 0.3 -1.4
Tony Gwynn Jr. 29 FA-elig 103-0.5 0.8 -2.2
Matt Treanor 36 FA-elig 36-0.6 0.8 -2.5
James Loney↔ BOS 28 FA-elig 114-0.7 5.0 -6.9
Juan Rivera 33 FA-elig 109-0.9 4.0 -6.4
Dee Strange-Gordon 24 pre-arb 87-1.3 0.5 -3.9

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
Chris Capuano2.6
Mark Ellis2.3
Luis Alfonso Cruz2.2
Aaron Harang1.8
Hanley Ramirez1.5
Jerry Hairston Jr.1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Jamey Carroll2.1
Aaron Miles0.7
Dana Eveland0.5
Rod Barajas0.3
Blake Hawksworth0.2
Trent Oeltjen0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$127.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Andre Ethier3011.153$10.9M$13.5M$15.5M$18.0M$18.0M$17.5MFREE AGENT
Ted Lilly3611.102$10.5M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Bobby Abreu3814.165$8.3MFREE AGENT
Juan Uribe3310.089$8.0M$8.0M$6.5M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Hanley Ramirez286.014$6.1M$15.5M$16.0MFREE AGENT
Adrián González306.108$4.9M$21.0M$21.0M$21.9M$21.9M$22.4MFREE AGENT
Matt Guerrier337.056$4.8M$3.3MFREE AGENT
Josh Beckett3210.030$4.2M$15.8M$15.8MFREE AGENT
Juan Rivera339.047$4.0MFREE AGENT
Joe Blanton317.016$3.4MFREE AGENT$4.0M
Shane Victorino316.092$3.3MFREE AGENT
Aaron Harang349.061$3.0MFREE AGENT
Chris Capuano337.001$3.0M$6.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Ellis359.136$2.5M$5.2MFREE AGENT
Jerry Hairston Jr.3614.000$2.2M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Todd Coffey316.024$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jamey Wright3713.086$900kFREE AGENT$1.8M
Matt Treanor367.093$850kFREE AGENT
Tony Gwynn Jr.296.000$850kFREE AGENT
Adam Kennedy3612.022$800kFREE AGENT
Randy Choate367.073$675kFREE AGENT
Mike MacDougal357.039$650kFREE AGENT
Nick Punto349.051$379k$1.5MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Matt Kemp275.049$10.0MFREE AGENT
Chad Billingsley275.110$9.0MFREE AGENT
Clayton Kershaw243.105$7.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Loney285.012$5.0MFREE AGENT
Brandon League295.145$1.9MFREE AGENT
Luis Alfonso Cruz284.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Kenley Jansen241.072$491kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Ellis311.151$490kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Elbert261.069$488kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javy Guerra261.000$488kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dee Strange-Gordon240.089$485kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rubby De La Rosa231.000$482kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Sellers261.124$481kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerry Sands241.142$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronald Belisario291.151$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Wall250.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Ely260.167$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Van Slyke250.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Tolleson240.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paco Rodríguez210.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Fife250.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Federowicz240.023$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Castellanos250.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Iván De Jesús Jr.251.000$356kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Lindblom250.077$313kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nathan Eovaldi220.053$218kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elian Herrera271.010—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Dodgers 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.