RRosternomics
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Guardians CLE

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President of baseball ops: Mark Shapiro · GM: Chris Antonetti

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.7× league · TAB +4.2
+4.2TAB — talent above budget12th/30
+7.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)7th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/30
-7.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag28th/30
47%dead money %24th/30
0.525win %12th/30
34.1roster fWAR14th/30
+21surplus $M (value vs cost)7th/30
$80Mpayroll $M25th/30

Roster

CFMichael Bourn 105GMichael Brantley 46GNyjer Morgan 12G
LFMichael Brantley 107GMike Aviles 27GJB Shuck 25G
RFDavid Murphy 120GTyler Holt 28GRyan Raburn 25G
SSJosé Ramírez 56GMike Aviles 15GJustin Sellers 6G
2BJason Kipnis 123GMike Aviles 33GJosé Ramírez 11G
3BLonnie Chisenhall 114GMike Aviles 36GCarlos Santana 26G
1BCarlos Santana 94GNick Swisher 52GJesús Aguilar 12G
STARTERSCorey Kluber 7.2WARCarlos Carrasco 3.2WARDanny Salazar 1.8WARZach McAllister 1.4WARTrevor Bauer 1.4WAR
CYan Gomes 126GRoberto Pérez 29GChris Gimenez 28G
DHNick Swisher 34GRyan Raburn 25GCarlos Santana 22G
BULLPEN★ Cody Allen 24svBryan Shaw 24hMarc Rzepczynski 14hScott Atchison 14hKyle Crockett 5hC.C. Lee 4hNick Hagadone 3hMark Lowe 0h
CYan Gomes 126 · Roberto Pérez 29 · Chris Gimenez 28
1BCarlos Santana 94 · Nick Swisher 52 · Jesús Aguilar 12
2BJason Kipnis 123 · Mike Aviles 33 · José Ramírez 11
3BLonnie Chisenhall 114 · Mike Aviles 36 · Carlos Santana 26
SSJosé Ramírez 56 · Mike Aviles 15 · Justin Sellers 6
LFMichael Brantley 107 · Mike Aviles 27 · JB Shuck 25
CFMichael Bourn 105 · Michael Brantley 46 · Nyjer Morgan 12
RFDavid Murphy 120 · Tyler Holt 28 · Ryan Raburn 25
DHNick Swisher 34 · Ryan Raburn 25 · Carlos Santana 22
SPCorey Kluber 7.2 · Carlos Carrasco 3.2 · Danny Salazar 1.8 · Zach McAllister 1.4 · Trevor Bauer 1.4
BP★ Cody Allen 24 · Bryan Shaw 24 · Marc Rzepczynski 14 · Scott Atchison 14 · Kyle Crockett 5 · C.C. Lee 4 · Nick Hagadone 3 · Mark Lowe 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2014 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Corey Kluber 28 arb 367.2 0.5 +20.5
Michael Brantley 27 arb 1566.5 1.5 +17.6
Yan Gomes 26 pre-arb 1354.9 0.6 +13.9
Carlos Carrasco 27 arb 403.2 0.5 +8.8
Carlos Santana 28 arb 1522.3 3.5 +3.3
Danny Salazar 24 pre-arb 201.8 0.5 +4.6
Lonnie Chisenhall 25 arb 1421.6 0.5 +4.1
Zach McAllister 26 arb 221.4 0.5 +3.7
Trevor Bauer 23 pre-arb 261.4 1.2 +2.9
Cody Allen 25 pre-arb 761.2 0.5 +2.9
TJ House 24 pre-arb 191.1 0.3 +3.0
José Ramírez 21 pre-arb 681.0 0.2 +2.8
Asdrúbal Cabrera↔ WSN 28 FA-elig 970.9 6.6 -3.9
Josh Tomlin 29 arb 260.9 0.8 +2.0
Justin Masterson↔ STL 29 FA-elig 190.9 6.6 -4.1
Scott Atchison 38 FA-elig 700.8 0.8 +1.6
Jason Kipnis 27 arb 1290.7 2.2 -0.2
Marc Rzepczynski 28 arb 730.6 1.4 +0.4
Roberto Pérez 25 – 290.6 0.1 +1.6
Michael Bourn 31 FA-elig 1060.5 13.5 -12.0
Bryan Shaw 26 arb 800.5 0.5 +0.9
Nyjer Morgan 33 – 150.4 0.6 +0.5
Nick Hagadone 28 arb 350.3 0.3 +0.7
George Kottaras↔ STL 31 – 100.3 0.0 +0.8
Tyler Holt 25 pre-arb 360.3 0.2 +0.6
Kyle Crockett 22 – 440.3 0.3 +0.5
Vinnie Pestano↔ ANA 29 arb 130.1 0.5 -0.3
Austin Adams 27 – 6-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Chris Dickerson 32 – 41-0.0 – –
Blake Wood 28 arb 7-0.1 0.6 -0.7
C.C. Lee 27 pre-arb 37-0.1 0.3 -0.6
David Murphy 32 FA-elig 129-0.1 5.5 -5.9
Justin Sellers 28 arb 17-0.1 0.5 -0.9
Bryan Price 27 – 3-0.2 – –
Mark Lowe 31 FA-elig 7-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Chris Gimenez↔ TEX 31 arb 8-0.3 0.1 -0.9
Josh Outman↔ NYY 29 FA-elig 31-0.3 1.0 -1.8
Zach Walters↔ WSN 24 pre-arb 30-0.3 0.1 -0.9
Elliot Johnson 30 FA-elig 7-0.3 0.9 -1.9
Mike Aviles 33 FA-elig 113-0.4 3.5 -4.5
John Axford↔ PIT 31 arb 49-0.5 3.6 -4.9
Jason Giambi 43 FA-elig 26-0.5 1.0 -2.5
JB Shuck↔ ANA 27 arb 16-0.5 0.2 -1.8
Jesús Aguilar 24 – 19-0.6 0.1 -1.9
Ryan Raburn 33 FA-elig 74-1.3 2.2 -6.0
Nick Swisher 33 FA-elig 97-1.8 15.0 -20.2

Key additions (new vs 2013)

PlayerfWAR
TJ House1.1
Scott Atchison0.8
Roberto Pérez0.6
Nyjer Morgan0.4
George Kottaras0.3
Tyler Holt0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2013)

Player2013 fWAR
Ubaldo Jiménez3.5
Scott Kazmir2.6
Drew Stubbs1.1
Matt Carson0.6
Joe Smith0.5
Matt Albers0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2014 payroll
$79.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2014, 2014–2020. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Nick Swisher339.031$15.0M$9.1MFREE AGENT
Michael Bourn317.028$13.5M$9.1MFREE AGENT
Asdrúbal Cabrera286.027$6.6MFREE AGENT
David Murphy326.087$5.5M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Ryan Raburn336.109$2.2M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Jason Giambi4318.082$1.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Lowe316.155$30kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Justin Masterson295.108$6.6MFREE AGENT
John Axford313.170$3.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Santana283.115$3.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Aviles335.091$3.5MFREE AGENT
Michael Brantley273.131$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marc Rzepczynski283.132$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Outman294.036$969kARB 3FREE AGENT
Elliot Johnson303.068$930kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Tomlin293.069$800kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Atchison384.168$800kARB 3FREE AGENT
Nyjer Morgan335.120$612kFREE AGENT
Blake Wood283.108$560kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Hagadone283.056$268kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Kottaras314.149$41kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Dickerson323.171—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (24)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Jason Kipnis272.069$2.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Bauer230.025$1.2MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yan Gomes261.083$550kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Shaw262.081$530kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Allen251.076$515kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Kluber281.074$514kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lonnie Chisenhall252.027$511kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vinnie Pestano292.160$507kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Carrasco272.147$505kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach McAllister261.124$504kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Sellers281.124$504kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Salazar240.055$501kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Crockett220.000$309kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
TJ House241.104$273kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
C.C. Lee270.038$257kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Holt250.075$232kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Ramírez210.029$232kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JB Shuck271.055$217kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roberto Pérez250.000$142kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesús Aguilar240.000$117kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Adams270.000$112kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Gimenez312.146$97kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Walters240.027$66kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Price27–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 2014; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.