TEX⇄CLE

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$3.2M net +0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2014 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net −$3.2M net -0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $10M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.6 ± 1 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2014 odds 16% → 15% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris GimenezC·31y·R/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.34/yr blended

Horizon

3.9 control yrs × 0.44 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.