CLE⇄ANA

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net +$83.2M net +11.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$80.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 10.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2014 odds 16% → 15% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike ClevingerP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$80.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 10.8

Prior

#135 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Jerry Dipoto net −$83.2M net -11.0

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $24M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.4 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2014 odds 71% → 71% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Vinnie PestanoP·29y·R/R

+$4.5M+$4.5M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.4± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.