WSN⇄CLE

WSNWSN Michael Rizzo net +$2.4M net +3.6

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $11M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.6 ± 1 expected · 2.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2014 odds 85% → 89% (+3.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Asdrúbal CabreraSS·28y·B/R

−$3.5M−$3.5M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.6± 1 exp WARrealized 2.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.3/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

1.60/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net −$2.4M net -3.6

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $19M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 1.9 ± 2 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2014 odds 20% → 15% (-4.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Zach WaltersDH/OF·24y·B/R

+$4.3M+$4.3M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.9± 2 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

#271 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.34/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.