RRosternomics
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Guardians CLE

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President of baseball ops: Mark Shapiro · GM: Chris Antonetti

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.62× league · TAB +12.0
+12.0TAB — talent above budget4th/30
+5.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)8th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/30
-4.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag14th/30
58%dead money %27th/30
0.503win %15th/30
40.1roster fWAR8th/30
+51surplus $M (value vs cost)1st/30
$75Mpayroll $M26th/30

Roster

CFAbraham Almonte 56GMichael Brantley 28GMike Aviles 5G
LFMichael Brantley 101GMike Aviles 34GRyan Raburn 18G
RFLonnie Chisenhall 51GJerry Sands 32GRyan Raburn 17G
SSFrancisco Lindor 98GJosé Ramírez 46GMike Aviles 23G
2BJason Kipnis 124GJosé Ramírez 33GMike Aviles 11G
3BGio Urshela 80GLonnie Chisenhall 50GMike Aviles 28G
1BCarlos Santana 132GChris Johnson 30GJerry Sands 11G
STARTERSCorey Kluber 5.5WARCarlos Carrasco 5.0WARDanny Salazar 3.0WARTrevor Bauer 1.9WARCody Anderson 1.0WAR
CYan Gomes 91GRoberto Pérez 69GBrett Hayes 14G
DHRyan Raburn 35GCarlos Santana 21GMichael Brantley 18G
BULLPEN★ Cody Allen 34svBryan Shaw 23hZach McAllister 13hNick Hagadone 5hKyle Crockett 3hJeff Manship 3hRyan Webb 1hAustin Adams 0h
CYan Gomes 91 · Roberto Pérez 69 · Brett Hayes 14
1BCarlos Santana 132 · Chris Johnson 30 · Jerry Sands 11
2BJason Kipnis 124 · José Ramírez 33 · Mike Aviles 11
3BGio Urshela 80 · Lonnie Chisenhall 50 · Mike Aviles 28
SSFrancisco Lindor 98 · José Ramírez 46 · Mike Aviles 23
LFMichael Brantley 101 · Mike Aviles 34 · Ryan Raburn 18
CFAbraham Almonte 56 · Michael Brantley 28 · Mike Aviles 5
RFLonnie Chisenhall 51 · Jerry Sands 32 · Ryan Raburn 17
DHRyan Raburn 35 · Carlos Santana 21 · Michael Brantley 18
SPCorey Kluber 5.5 · Carlos Carrasco 5.0 · Danny Salazar 3.0 · Trevor Bauer 1.9 · Cody Anderson 1.0
BP★ Cody Allen 34 · Bryan Shaw 23 · Zach McAllister 13 · Nick Hagadone 5 · Kyle Crockett 3 · Jeff Manship 3 · Ryan Webb 1 · Austin Adams 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2015 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Corey Kluber 29 arb 325.5 1.2 +16.1
Carlos Carrasco 28 FA-elig 305.0 2.3 +13.4
Jason Kipnis 28 arb 1414.5 4.2 +10.0
Francisco Lindor 21 – 994.0 0.3 +12.2
Michael Brantley 28 FA-elig 1373.5 5.9 +5.1
Danny Salazar 25 pre-arb 303.0 0.5 +8.9
Cody Allen 26 arb 702.6 0.5 +7.8
Carlos Santana 29 arb 1542.1 6.0 +0.6
Roberto Pérez 26 pre-arb 702.1 0.5 +6.1
Trevor Bauer 24 arb 311.9 1.9 +4.0
Lonnie Chisenhall 26 arb 1061.5 2.2 +2.5
Ryan Raburn 34 FA-elig 821.3 2.5 +1.7
Abraham Almonte↔ SDP 26 pre-arb 511.2 0.1 +3.7
Cody Anderson 24 – 151.0 0.3 +2.9
Zach McAllister 27 arb 610.9 0.5 +2.4
Jeff Manship 30 pre-arb 320.6 0.3 +1.7
Yan Gomes 27 arb 950.6 1.0 +0.8
Josh Tomlin 30 arb 100.5 1.5 +0.2
José Ramírez 22 pre-arb 970.5 0.5 +1.0
David Murphy↔ ANA 33 FA-elig 840.4 3.8 -2.7
Michael Bourn↔ ATL 32 FA-elig 950.3 9.1 -8.1
Marc Rzepczynski↔ SDP 29 FA-elig 450.3 1.5 -0.7
Nick Hagadone 29 arb 360.2 0.5 +0.2
Bryan Shaw 27 arb 740.2 1.6 -0.8
Ryan Webb 29 arb 400.1 0.4 -0.0
Kyle Crockett 23 pre-arb 310.1 0.5 -0.2
Anthony Swarzak 29 FA-elig 100.1 0.9 -0.6
Gavin Floyd 32 FA-elig 70.1 4.0 -3.7
Austin Adams 28 pre-arb 280.1 0.5 -0.2
Shawn Armstrong 24 – 80.1 0.1 +0.2
Jerry Sands 27 pre-arb 500.1 0.2 +0.0
Chris Johnson↔ ATL 30 FA-elig 270.0 2.0 -1.8
Giovanni Soto 24 – 60.0 0.1 +0.0
C.C. Lee 28 pre-arb 20.0 0.0 +0.1
Jesús Aguilar 25 pre-arb 7-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Gio Urshela 23 – 81-0.0 – –
Adam Moore 31 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Michael Martinez 32 pre-arb 16-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Toru Murata 30 – 1-0.2 0.0 -0.5
TJ House 25 pre-arb 4-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Bruce Chen 38 – 2-0.2 1.0 -1.7
Shaun Marcum 33 FA-elig 7-0.2 1.0 -1.7
Brandon Moss↔ STL 31 FA-elig 94-0.3 4.2 -5.1
Brett Hayes 31 arb 14-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Tyler Holt↔ CIN 26 – 9-0.3 0.0 -1.0
Zach Walters 25 pre-arb 12-0.5 0.5 -1.9
Scott Atchison 39 FA-elig 23-0.5 0.9 -2.3
Nick Swisher↔ ATL 34 FA-elig 30-0.7 5.9 -8.2
Mike Aviles 34 FA-elig 98-0.9 3.5 -6.4

Key additions (new vs 2014)

PlayerfWAR
Francisco Lindor4.0
Abraham Almonte1.2
Cody Anderson1.0
Jeff Manship0.6
Ryan Webb0.1
Anthony Swarzak0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2014)

Player2014 fWAR
Asdrúbal Cabrera0.9
Justin Masterson0.9
Nyjer Morgan0.4
George Kottaras0.3
Vinnie Pestano0.1
Chris Dickerson-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2015 payroll
$75.4M
2016 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2015, 2015–2021. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2015; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Michael Bourn328.028$9.1MFREE AGENT
Nick Swisher3410.031$5.9MFREE AGENT
Gavin Floyd3210.045$4.0MFREE AGENT
David Murphy337.087$3.8MFREE AGENT
Mike Aviles346.091$3.5MFREE AGENT
Ryan Raburn347.109$2.5MFREE AGENT
Bruce Chen3817.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Shaun Marcum337.128$973kFREE AGENT
Scott Atchison3911.000$900kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Carlos Santana294.115$6.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Brantley284.131$5.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Moss314.160$4.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Kipnis283.069$4.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Carrasco283.147$2.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lonnie Chisenhall263.027$2.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Johnson304.144$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Shaw273.081$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Tomlin304.033$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Marc Rzepczynski294.132$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Swarzak294.038$900kARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Hagadone293.056$517kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Webb295.011$438kFREE AGENT
Brett Hayes314.017$108kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Trevor Bauer240.158$1.9MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Kluber292.074$1.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yan Gomes272.083$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Allen262.076$547kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach McAllister272.077$520kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
TJ House251.104$512kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Ramírez221.153$511kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Crockett230.115$511kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Walters250.128$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roberto Pérez260.083$509kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Adams281.000$508kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Salazar250.162$469kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Lindor210.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Manship302.021$302kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Anderson240.000$297kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerry Sands271.142$238kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Armstrong240.000$108kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Abraham Almonte260.126$97kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Giovanni Soto24–$83k
Michael Martinez322.103$83kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesús Aguilar250.044$39kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
C.C. Lee280.136$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Holt261.075$29kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Moore312.065$28kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Toru Murata30–$3k
Gio Urshela230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 2015; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.