RRosternomics
𝕏

Reds CIN

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Nick Krall

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.71× league · TAB -15.2
-15.2TAB — talent above budget28th/30
-15.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)29th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars24th/30
-10.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag29th/30
74%dead money %30th/30
0.383win %27th/30
14.9roster fWAR27th/30
-46surplus $M (value vs cost)20th/30
$102Mpayroll $M22nd/30

Roster

CFNick Senzel 101GTJ Friedl 24GAlbert Almora Jr. 23G
LFJake Fraley 29GTJ Friedl 25GStuart Fairchild 22G
RFAristides Aquino 69GAlbert Almora Jr. 28GJake Fraley 16G
SSKyle Farmer 98GJosé Barrero 48GMatt Reynolds 23G
2BJonathan India 86GMatt Reynolds 36GAlejo Lopez 33G
3BKyle Farmer 36GMike Moustakas 25GDonovan Solano 16G
1BJoey Votto 76GDonovan Solano 26GColin Moran 25G
STARTERSNick Lodolo 1.9WARHunter Greene 1.6WARGraham Ashcraft 1.4WARLuis Cessa 0.1WARChase Anderson 0.1WAR
CAustin Romine 50GTyler Stephenson 45GAramis Garcia 41G
DHMike Moustakas 30GDonovan Solano 26GJake Fraley 14G
BULLPEN★ Alexis Díaz 10svReiver Sanmartin 7hJoel Kuhnel 5hBuck Farmer 5hHunter Strickland 4hArt Warren 4hDauri Moreta 1hJeff Hoffman 1h
CAustin Romine 50 · Tyler Stephenson 45 · Aramis Garcia 41
1BJoey Votto 76 · Donovan Solano 26 · Colin Moran 25
2BJonathan India 86 · Matt Reynolds 36 · Alejo Lopez 33
3BKyle Farmer 36 · Mike Moustakas 25 · Donovan Solano 16
SSKyle Farmer 98 · José Barrero 48 · Matt Reynolds 23
LFJake Fraley 29 · TJ Friedl 25 · Stuart Fairchild 22
CFNick Senzel 101 · TJ Friedl 24 · Albert Almora Jr. 23
RFAristides Aquino 69 · Albert Almora Jr. 28 · Jake Fraley 16
DHMike Moustakas 30 · Donovan Solano 26 · Jake Fraley 14
SPNick Lodolo 1.9 · Hunter Greene 1.6 · Graham Ashcraft 1.4 · Luis Cessa 0.1 · Chase Anderson 0.1
BP★ Alexis Díaz 10 · Reiver Sanmartin 7 · Joel Kuhnel 5 · Buck Farmer 5 · Hunter Strickland 4 · Art Warren 4 · Dauri Moreta 1 · Jeff Hoffman 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2022 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Brandon Drury↔ SDP 29 FA-elig 922.7 0.5 +9.6
Tyler Mahle↔ MIN 27 arb 192.3 4.3 +4.1
Luis Castillo↔ SEA 29 arb 142.2 4.1 +3.9
Nick Lodolo 24 – 191.9 0.7 +6.2
Hunter Greene 22 – 241.6 0.7 +5.3
Kyle Farmer 31 arb 1451.5 3.2 +2.5
Tyler Stephenson 25 pre-arb 501.5 0.7 +4.8
Graham Ashcraft 24 – 191.4 0.5 +4.5
Alexis Díaz 25 – 591.1 0.7 +3.2
Buck Farmer 31 arb 441.0 0.6 +3.2
Jake Fraley 27 pre-arb 680.8 0.7 +2.2
Stuart Fairchild↔ SEA 26 pre-arb 380.7 0.2 +2.5
Connor Overton 28 pre-arb 60.7 0.6 +1.9
TJ Friedl 26 pre-arb 720.7 0.3 +2.2
Ian Gibaut↔ CLE 28 pre-arb 330.6 0.3 +1.9
Albert Almora Jr. 28 FA-elig 640.5 0.1 +1.9
Donovan Solano 34 FA-elig 800.5 4.5 -2.5
Tommy Pham↔ BOS 34 FA-elig 910.5 3.8 -1.9
Tyler Naquin↔ NYM 31 FA-elig 560.4 2.1 -0.6
Matt Reynolds↔ NYM 31 pre-arb 920.4 0.6 +0.8
Joel Kuhnel 27 pre-arb 530.3 0.6 +0.7
Fernando Cruz 32 – 140.3 0.1 +0.9
Jonathan India 25 pre-arb 1030.2 0.8 +0.1
Jeff Hoffman 29 FA-elig 350.2 0.9 -0.1
Justin Wilson 34 FA-elig 50.2 2.3 -1.6
Aristides Aquino 28 pre-arb 800.2 0.6 +0.0
Tony Santillan 25 pre-arb 210.2 0.7 -0.0
Colin Moran 29 FA-elig 420.1 1.0 -0.6
Chase Anderson 34 FA-elig 90.1 0.7 -0.4
Derek Law↔ DET 31 arb 150.1 0.6 -0.4
Luis Cessa 30 FA-elig 460.1 1.8 -1.6
Hunter Strickland 33 FA-elig 660.0 1.8 -1.6
Ryan Hendrix 27 pre-arb 90.0 0.1 +0.1
Kyle Dowdy 29 pre-arb 20.0 0.0 +0.0
JT Riddle 30 – 20.0 0.0 -0.0
Raynel Espinal 30 pre-arb 20.0 0.0 -0.0
Mark Kolozsvary 26 – 10-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Lucas Sims 28 arb 6-0.0 1.2 -1.3
Reiver Sanmartin 26 pre-arb 45-0.0 0.5 -0.7
Luke Farrell↔ CHC 31 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Daniel Duarte 25 – 3-0.1 0.7 -0.9
Ronnie Dawson 27 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Spencer Steer 24 – 28-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Ross Detwiler 36 – 30-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Robert Dugger↔ TBR 26 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Alejo Lopez 26 pre-arb 61-0.1 0.4 -0.8
Jared Solomon 25 – 9-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Aramis Garcia 29 – 47-0.2 0.7 -1.4
Chris Okey 27 – 7-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Taylor Motter 32 – 2-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Art Warren 29 pre-arb 39-0.2 0.6 -1.5
Phillip Diehl 27 – 5-0.3 0.0 -1.0
Dauri Moreta 26 pre-arb 35-0.3 0.4 -1.6
Chuckie Robinson 27 – 25-0.3 0.2 -1.4
Mike Minor 34 FA-elig 19-0.4 10.0 -11.3
Max Schrock 27 – 13-0.4 0.4 -1.7
Michael Siani 22 – 9-0.4 – –
Vladimir Gutierrez 26 pre-arb 10-0.4 0.7 -2.3
Mike Moustakas 33 FA-elig 78-0.5 16.0 -17.7
T.J. Zeuch 26 – 3-0.5 0.1 -2.0
Nick Senzel 27 arb 110-0.7 1.2 -3.8
Justin Dunn 26 pre-arb 7-0.7 0.7 -3.3
Michael Papierski↔ SFG 26 – 34-0.8 0.2 -3.1
Joey Votto 38 FA-elig 91-0.8 25.0 -28.0
Austin Romine↔ ANA 33 FA-elig 37-1.0 0.2 -3.8
José Barrero 24 pre-arb 48-1.2 0.5 -5.0

Key additions (new vs 2021)

PlayerfWAR
Brandon Drury2.7
Nick Lodolo1.9
Hunter Greene1.6
Graham Ashcraft1.4
Alexis Díaz1.1
Buck Farmer1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2021)

Player2021 fWAR
Nick Castellanos3.7
Wade Miley3.4
Jesse Winker3.2
Sonny Gray2.4
Tucker Barnhart1.5
Sean Doolittle0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2022 payroll
$102.1M
2023 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2022, 2022–2028. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2022; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Joey Votto3814.027$25.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Moustakas3310.111$16.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Minor3410.138$10.0MFREE AGENT
Donovan Solano346.081$4.5MFREE AGENT
Tommy Pham346.107$3.8MFREE AGENT
Justin Wilson349.035$2.3MFREE AGENT
Hunter Strickland336.033$1.8MFREE AGENT
Colin Moran296.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Chase Anderson347.146$700kFREE AGENT
Ross Detwiler369.011$415kFREE AGENT
Austin Romine338.044$179kFREE AGENT
Albert Almora Jr.286.000$100kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Tyler Mahle274.018$4.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Castillo294.101$4.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Farmer313.129$3.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Naquin315.032$2.1MFREE AGENT
Luis Cessa304.131$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Sims283.014$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Hoffman293.105$925kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Law313.035$618kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Buck Farmer315.018$570kFREE AGENT
Brandon Drury295.001$467kFREE AGENT
JT Riddle303.137$27kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (43)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Nick Senzel272.150$1.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan India251.000$760kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Stephenson251.056$720kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Fraley271.097$710kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vladimir Gutierrez260.127$708kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Santillan250.090$702kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Greene220.000$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alexis Díaz250.000$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aramis Garcia292.086$700kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Lodolo240.000$673kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Duarte250.000$665kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Dunn262.020$661kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Art Warren290.146$645kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aristides Aquino282.005$640kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Reynolds311.093$616kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Overton280.049$612kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Kuhnel270.148$577kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reiver Sanmartin260.007$550kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Graham Ashcraft240.000$515kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Barrero240.129$494kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alejo Lopez260.029$415kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dauri Moreta260.012$381kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Schrock271.075$363kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
TJ Friedl260.016$350kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Gibaut280.148$340kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stuart Fairchild260.048$203kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Papierski26–$191k
Robert Dugger261.036$190kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chuckie Robinson270.000$169kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Steer240.000$131kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Cruz320.000$131kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Kolozsvary261.047$108kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Solomon25–$96k
Ryan Hendrix270.097$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
T.J. Zeuch261.058$77kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Okey270.000$69kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phillip Diehl270.144$46kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Farrell312.108$18kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raynel Espinal300.001$15kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Motter322.033$12kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronnie Dawson270.007$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Dowdy290.123$8kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Siani220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2022; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.