SEA⇄CIN

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$43.2M net +11.3

received +$105.6M+$69.6M ± $57M expected surplus · +$36.8M realized received 15.4 ± 7 expected · 10.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2022 odds 21% → 28% (+6.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luis CastilloP·29y·R/R

+$105.8M+$69.6M± $57M exp surplusrealized +$36.8M 15.4± 7 exp WARrealized 10.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.9/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

2.55/yr blended

Horizon

7.0 control yrs × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Nick Krall net −$43.2M net -11.3

received +$32.0M+$32.0M ± $55M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 11.2 ± 7 expected · -1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2022 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Noelvi Marte3B/OF·20y·R/R

+$25.8M+$25.8M± $42M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 7.4± 5 exp WARrealized -1.1

Prior

Composite #14.5 prospect (Baseball America #18 (2022) / MLB Pipeline #11 (2022)) → 1.35/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

1.35/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Andrew MooreP·22y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#414 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Edwin ArroyoSS·18y·S/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#48 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Levi StoudtP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#97 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.