RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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President of baseball ops: Nick Krall

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.46× league · TAB +4.2
+4.2TAB — talent above budget12th/30
+10.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)6th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/30
-5.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag15th/30
80%dead money %29th/30
0.506win %15th/30
28.9roster fWAR19th/30
+44surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/30
$71Mpayroll $M27th/30

Roster

CFTJ Friedl 126GHarrison Bader 95GStuart Fairchild 27G
LFWill Benson 46GStuart Fairchild 45GSpencer Steer 45G
RFHunter Renfroe 128GJake Fraley 55GWill Benson 54G
SSElly De La Cruz 69GMatt McLain 53GJosé Barrero 26G
2BJonathan India 104GMatt McLain 37GKevin Newman 16G
3BNick Senzel 57GSpencer Steer 47GElly De La Cruz 32G
1BSpencer Steer 73GJoey Votto 47GChristian Encarnacion-Strand 35G
STARTERSAndrew Abbott 2.1WARHunter Greene 1.9WARBrandon Williamson 1.8WARGraham Ashcraft 1.4WARBen Lively 0.4WAR
CTyler Stephenson 92GLuke Maile 71GCurt Casali 38G
DHTyler Stephenson 43GChristian Encarnacion-Strand 24GJake Fraley 23G
BULLPEN★ Alexis Díaz 37svIan Gibaut 23hLucas Sims 23hAlex Young 14hBuck Farmer 10hSam Moll 9hFernando Cruz 7hDerek Law 3h
CTyler Stephenson 92 · Luke Maile 71 · Curt Casali 38
1BSpencer Steer 73 · Joey Votto 47 · Christian Encarnacion-Strand 35
2BJonathan India 104 · Matt McLain 37 · Kevin Newman 16
3BNick Senzel 57 · Spencer Steer 47 · Elly De La Cruz 32
SSElly De La Cruz 69 · Matt McLain 53 · José Barrero 26
LFWill Benson 46 · Stuart Fairchild 45 · Spencer Steer 45
CFTJ Friedl 126 · Harrison Bader 95 · Stuart Fairchild 27
RFHunter Renfroe 128 · Jake Fraley 55 · Will Benson 54
DHTyler Stephenson 43 · Christian Encarnacion-Strand 24 · Jake Fraley 23
SPAndrew Abbott 2.1 · Hunter Greene 1.9 · Brandon Williamson 1.8 · Graham Ashcraft 1.4 · Ben Lively 0.4
BP★ Alexis Díaz 37 · Ian Gibaut 23 · Lucas Sims 23 · Alex Young 14 · Buck Farmer 10 · Sam Moll 9 · Fernando Cruz 7 · Derek Law 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2023 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
TJ Friedl 27 pre-arb 1384.1 0.7 +15.7
Matt McLain 23 – 893.2 0.5 +12.2
Andrew Abbott 24 – 212.1 0.5 +8.0
Spencer Steer 25 pre-arb 1562.0 0.7 +7.3
Will Benson 25 pre-arb 1081.9 0.7 +6.9
Hunter Greene 23 pre-arb 221.9 1.3 +6.3
Elly De La Cruz 21 – 981.9 0.5 +7.0
Brandon Williamson 25 – 231.8 0.5 +6.5
Alexis Díaz 26 pre-arb 711.7 0.7 +6.0
Fernando Cruz 33 pre-arb 581.6 0.7 +5.7
Jonathan India 26 pre-arb 1191.6 0.8 +5.5
Graham Ashcraft 25 pre-arb 261.4 0.7 +5.0
Jake Fraley 28 arb 1111.1 0.7 +3.8
Stuart Fairchild 27 pre-arb 970.9 0.7 +2.8
Ian Gibaut 29 arb 740.9 0.7 +2.8
Lucas Sims 29 FA-elig 670.8 1.3 +1.7
Christian Encarnacion-Strand 23 – 630.7 0.3 +2.3
Noelvi Marte 21 – 350.6 0.2 +2.1
Buck Farmer 32 FA-elig 710.6 1.8 +0.5
Sam Moll↔ OAK 31 FA-elig 250.6 0.3 +1.9
Nick Martini 33 pre-arb 290.4 0.2 +1.4
Ben Lively 31 pre-arb 190.4 0.7 +0.7
Derek Law 32 FA-elig 540.3 1.0 +0.2
Luke Maile 32 FA-elig 780.2 1.2 -0.2
Luke Weaver↔ NYY 29 FA-elig 210.2 1.4 -0.6
Carson Spiers 25 – 40.2 0.1 +0.7
Tejay Antone 29 arb 50.2 0.8 -0.0
Brett Kennedy 28 pre-arb 50.2 0.1 +0.6
Luis Cessa 31 FA-elig 70.2 2.6 -2.0
Alan Busenitz 32 pre-arb 60.2 0.1 +0.6
Levi Stoudt 25 – 40.1 0.0 +0.4
Silvino Bracho 30 arb 50.1 0.1 +0.3
Alex Young 29 arb 630.1 1.1 -0.8
Alejo Lopez 27 pre-arb 10.1 0.0 +0.3
Joey Votto 39 FA-elig 650.1 25.0 -24.7
Connor Phillips 22 – 50.1 0.1 +0.1
Nick Lodolo 25 pre-arb 70.0 0.7 -0.6
Kevin Newman 29 arb 740.0 2.7 -2.6
Ricky Karcher 25 – 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Eduardo Salazar 25 – 80.0 0.1 -0.0
Randy Wynne 30 – 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Henry Ramos 31 pre-arb 23-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Joel Kuhnel↔ HOU 28 arb 2-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Michael Siani↔ STL 23 – 3-0.0 – –
Jake Wong 26 – 1-0.0 – –
Kevin Herget 32 pre-arb 14-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Chasen Shreve↔ DET 32 FA-elig 3-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Michael Mariot 34 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Reiver Sanmartin 27 pre-arb 14-0.1 0.7 -1.0
Matt Reynolds 32 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Alec Mills 31 arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Tony Santillan 26 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.4 -0.8
Connor Overton 29 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.7 -1.2
Daniel Duarte 26 pre-arb 31-0.2 0.3 -1.0
Harrison Bader↔ NYY 29 arb 14-0.2 0.6 -1.3
Casey Legumina 26 – 11-0.2 0.4 -1.2
Curt Casali 34 FA-elig 40-0.3 2.5 -3.5
Jason Vosler 29 pre-arb 20-0.3 1.0 -2.0
Nick Senzel 28 arb 104-0.4 1.9 -3.7
Lyon Richardson 23 – 4-0.5 0.1 -1.9
José Barrero 25 arb 46-0.5 0.7 -2.6
TJ Hopkins 26 – 25-0.5 0.2 -2.3
Hunter Renfroe↔ ANA 31 FA-elig 14-0.6 1.2 -3.4
Tyler Stephenson 26 arb 142-0.6 0.7 -3.0
Wil Myers 32 FA-elig 37-0.7 6.0 -8.8

Key additions (new vs 2022)

PlayerfWAR
Matt McLain3.2
Andrew Abbott2.1
Will Benson1.9
Elly De La Cruz1.9
Brandon Williamson1.8
Christian Encarnacion-Strand0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2022)

Player2022 fWAR
Brandon Drury2.7
Tyler Mahle2.3
Luis Castillo2.2
Kyle Farmer1.5
Albert Almora Jr.0.5
Donovan Solano0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2023 payroll
$70.6M
2024 guaranteed
$3.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2023, 2023–2029. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2023; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Joey Votto3915.027$25.0MFREE AGENT
Wil Myers3210.000$6.0MFREE AGENT
Luis Cessa317.000$2.6MFREE AGENT
Curt Casali346.151$2.5MFREE AGENT
Hunter Greene231.000$1.3M$3.3M$6.3M$8.3M$15.3M$16.3M$21.0MCLUB
Hunter Renfroe317.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Chasen Shreve329.000$75kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Kevin Newman295.000$2.7MFREE AGENT
Nick Senzel283.150$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Buck Farmer325.140$1.8MFREE AGENT
Luke Weaver295.112$1.4MFREE AGENT
Lucas Sims294.014$1.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Maile325.148$1.2MFREE AGENT
Derek Law323.081$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tejay Antone293.000$770kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Harrison Bader295.030$560kFREE AGENT
Silvino Bracho303.099$54kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alec Mills313.097$19kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (47)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Alex Young292.143$1.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Vosler290.109$1.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan India262.000$760kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Stephenson262.056$740kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Fraley282.097$740kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Overton291.041$730kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Gibaut291.077$730kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Lodolo251.000$730kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alexis Díaz261.000$730kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Barrero251.082$730kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stuart Fairchild270.136$722kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reiver Sanmartin270.147$722kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Graham Ashcraft250.136$722kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
TJ Friedl270.112$722kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Steer250.035$720kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Lively310.159$720kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Cruz330.035$720kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Benson250.066$720kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt McLain230.000$538kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Williamson250.000$538kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Abbott240.000$461kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elly De La Cruz210.000$457kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Legumina260.000$418kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Santillan261.090$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Duarte261.000$325kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Encarnacion-Strand230.000$298kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Moll311.075$259kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Ramos310.029$236kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Noelvi Marte210.000$166kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Herget320.023$166kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Kuhnel281.041$162kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
TJ Hopkins26–$159k
Nick Martini331.086$155kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lyon Richardson230.000$128kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carson Spiers250.000$108kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Kennedy281.055$105kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Phillips220.000$105kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduardo Salazar250.000$81kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alan Busenitz320.156$66kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Reynolds322.093$35kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Levi Stoudt25–$31k
Ricky Karcher25–$15k
Alejo Lopez270.140$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Mariot341.057$8kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Wynne30–$4k
Michael Siani231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Wong26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2023; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.