SEA⇄CIN

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$34.4M net +5.2

received +$56.8M+$56.8M ± $24M expected surplus · +$52.8M realized received 6.9 ± 3 expected · 9.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2022 odds 11% → 28% (+17 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jesse WinkerOF·28y·L/L

+$58.3M+$58.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 5.4± 3 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.3/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

2.71/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Eugenio Suárez3B·30y·R/R

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$52.0M 1.5± 1 exp WARrealized 8.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.46/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Nick Krall net −$34.4M net -5.2

received +$23.2M+$23.2M ± $41M expected surplus · +$18.4M realized received 6.1 ± 5 expected · 4.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2022 odds 1% → 0% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jake FraleyOF·27y·L/L

+$14.9M+$14.9M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$16.8M 2.9± 3 exp WARrealized 3.4

Prior

#77 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.60/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Justin DunnP·26y·R/R

+$6.9M+$6.9M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 2.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

#19 overall draft pick → 0.50/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.51/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Brandon WilliamsonP·24y·R/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

#59 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.