RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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GM: Walt Jocketty

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.85× league · TAB -5.0
-5.0TAB — talent above budget21st/30
-1.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)19th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars25th/30
-4.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag11th/30
32%dead money %9th/30
0.481win %19th/30
27.2roster fWAR22nd/30
-10surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/30
$78Mpayroll $M19th/30

Roster

CFWilly Taveras 98GDrew Stubbs 42GChris Dickerson 27G
LFLaynce Nix 72GWladimir Balentien 61GChris Dickerson 37G
RFJay Bruce 98GJonny Gomes 34GWladimir Balentien 22G
SSPaul Janish 82GDrew Sutton 7GAdam Rosales 6G
2BBrandon Phillips 151GDrew Sutton 8GAdam Rosales 4G
3BScott Rolen 127GAdam Rosales 57GJuan Francisco 4G
1BJoey Votto 130GRamon Hernandez 30GAdam Rosales 11G
STARTERSAaron Harang 2.3WARJohnny Cueto 1.3WARBronson Arroyo 1.2WARHomer Bailey 0.7WARMicah Owings 0.6WAR
CRyan Hanigan 88GRamon Hernandez 55GCorky Miller 32G
DHJonny Gomes 9G
BULLPEN★ Francisco Cordero 39svArthur Rhodes 25hNick Masset 20hDaniel Herrera 10hJared Burton 7hRamon Ramirez 3hCarlos Fisher 2hMike Lincoln 1h
CRyan Hanigan 88 · Ramon Hernandez 55 · Corky Miller 32
1BJoey Votto 130 · Ramon Hernandez 30 · Adam Rosales 11
2BBrandon Phillips 151 · Drew Sutton 8 · Adam Rosales 4
3BScott Rolen 127 · Adam Rosales 57 · Juan Francisco 4
SSPaul Janish 82 · Drew Sutton 7 · Adam Rosales 6
LFLaynce Nix 72 · Wladimir Balentien 61 · Chris Dickerson 37
CFWilly Taveras 98 · Drew Stubbs 42 · Chris Dickerson 27
RFJay Bruce 98 · Jonny Gomes 34 · Wladimir Balentien 22
DHJonny Gomes 9
SPAaron Harang 2.3 · Johnny Cueto 1.3 · Bronson Arroyo 1.2 · Homer Bailey 0.7 · Micah Owings 0.6
BP★ Francisco Cordero 39 · Arthur Rhodes 25 · Nick Masset 20 · Daniel Herrera 10 · Jared Burton 7 · Ramon Ramirez 3 · Carlos Fisher 2 · Mike Lincoln 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2009 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Joey Votto 25 pre-arb 1314.6 0.4 +10.5
Ryan Hanigan 28 pre-arb 902.8 0.4 +6.3
Brandon Phillips 28 FA-elig 1532.7 5.2 +1.2
Aaron Harang 31 FA-elig 262.3 14.0 -8.5
Jay Bruce 22 pre-arb 1011.8 0.4 +3.8
Chris Dickerson 27 pre-arb 971.6 0.4 +3.5
Drew Stubbs 24 pre-arb 421.4 0.4 +3.0
Johnny Cueto 23 pre-arb 301.3 0.4 +2.7
Francisco Cordero 34 FA-elig 681.3 12.1 -9.0
Nick Masset 27 arb 741.2 0.4 +2.5
Laynce Nix 28 – 1161.2 0.6 +2.3
Bronson Arroyo 32 FA-elig 361.2 10.1 -7.4
Jonny Gomes 28 FA-elig 981.0 0.6 +1.8
Scott Rolen↔ TOR 34 FA-elig 401.0 3.8 -1.4
Arthur Rhodes 39 FA-elig 660.9 2.0 +0.0
Paul Janish 26 pre-arb 900.8 0.4 +1.5
Homer Bailey 23 pre-arb 220.7 0.4 +1.4
Wladimir Balentien↔ SEA 24 pre-arb 400.7 0.2 +1.6
Micah Owings 26 pre-arb 410.6 0.4 +1.1
Juan Francisco 22 pre-arb 140.5 0.4 +0.8
Jerry Hairston Jr.↔ NYY 33 FA-elig 860.3 1.3 -0.6
Daniel Herrera 24 pre-arb 700.3 0.4 +0.3
Josh Roenicke↔ TOR 26 pre-arb 110.2 0.2 +0.4
Jared Burton 28 pre-arb 530.2 0.4 +0.1
Corky Miller↔ CHW 33 FA-elig 210.2 0.3 +0.2
Carlos Fisher 26 pre-arb 390.1 0.4 -0.1
Matt Maloney 25 pre-arb 80.1 0.4 -0.2
Drew Sutton 26 pre-arb 420.1 0.4 -0.2
Willy Taveras 27 arb 1020.1 2.2 -2.1
Wilkin Castillo 25 – 40.1 – –
Robert Manuel 25 pre-arb 30.1 0.4 -0.2
Edinson Volquez 25 arb 90.0 0.4 -0.3
Craig Tatum 26 pre-arb 26-0.1 0.4 -0.5
Kevin Barker 33 – 29-0.1 – –
Ramon Hernandez 33 FA-elig 81-0.1 8.5 -8.7
Darnell McDonald 30 – 47-0.1 – –
Kip Wells↔ WSN 32 – 10-0.1 – –
Pedro Viola 26 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Ramon Ramirez 26 – 11-0.1 – –
Adam Rosales 26 pre-arb 87-0.2 0.4 -1.0
Danny Richar 26 – 7-0.3 – –
Edwin Encarnación↔ TOR 26 arb 43-0.4 1.2 -2.2
David Weathers↔ MIL 39 FA-elig 43-0.4 2.2 -3.3
Álex González↔ BOS 32 FA-elig 68-0.6 3.3 -4.7
Justin Lehr 31 – 11-0.7 – –
Mike Lincoln 34 FA-elig 19-1.1 1.5 -4.0

Key additions (new vs 2008)

PlayerfWAR
Drew Stubbs1.4
Laynce Nix1.2
Jonny Gomes1.0
Scott Rolen1.0
Arthur Rhodes0.9
Wladimir Balentien0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2008)

Player2008 fWAR
David Ross2.4
Paul Bako1.6
Adam Dunn0.7
Javier Valentin0.6
Bill Bray0.5
Jeremy Affeldt0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2009 payroll
$77.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2009, 2009–2015. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Aaron Harang317.000$14.0M$12.5MFREE AGENT
Francisco Cordero3410.000$12.1M$12.1M$12.1MFREE AGENT
Bronson Arroyo329.000$10.1M$11.6M$7.7M$12.0M$16.4MFREE AGENT
Ramon Hernandez3310.000$8.5M$3.9M$2.9MFREE AGENT
Brandon Phillips287.000$5.2M$6.9M$11.4M$12.0M$10.0M$11.0M$12.0M
Scott Rolen3413.000$3.8M$7.7M$8.2M$6.5MFREE AGENT
Álex González3211.000$3.3MFREE AGENT
David Weathers3918.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Arthur Rhodes3918.000$2.0M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Lincoln3410.000$1.5M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Jerry Hairston Jr.3311.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Jonny Gomes286.000$600k$800k$1.1MFREE AGENT
Laynce Nix286.000$600kFREE AGENT
Corky Miller338.000$270kFREE AGENT$273k
Kip Wells3210.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Willy Taveras275.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Edwin Encarnación264.000$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Edinson Volquez254.000$440kARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Masset273.000$418kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Lehr315.000—FREE AGENT
Ramon Ramirez264.142—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Joey Votto252.000$438kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Burton282.000$420kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Micah Owings262.000$420kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johnny Cueto231.000$418kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Bruce221.000$418kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Homer Bailey232.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Tatum260.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Francisco220.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Dickerson271.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Hanigan282.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Sutton260.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Stubbs240.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Fisher260.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Janish261.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Manuel250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Viola260.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Maloney250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Rosales261.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Herrera241.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Roenicke261.000$183kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wladimir Balentien242.000$169kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darnell McDonald300.143—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Barker33–—
Wilkin Castillo25–—
Danny Richar26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2009; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.