TOR⇄CIN

TORTOR JP Ricciardi net +$143.2M net +15.9

received +$13.6M+$13.6M ± $44M expected surplus · +$128.0M realized received 5.6 ± 6 expected · 23.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2009 odds 19% → 18% (-1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Edwin Encarnación1B/3B/DH·26y·R/R

+$9.8M+$9.8M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$129.6M 3.2± 4 exp WARrealized 23.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

1.08/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Josh RoenickeP·26y·R/R

+$2.0M+$2.0M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#294 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Zach StewartP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#84 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Walt Jocketty net −$143.2M net -15.9

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $19M expected surplus · −$15.2M realized received 4.5 ± 2 expected · 7.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2009 odds 3% → 4% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott Rolen3B·34y·R/R

+$3.5M+$3.5M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$15.2M 4.5± 2 exp WARrealized 7.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.6/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

3.07/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.