RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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GM: Walt Jocketty

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.8× league · TAB +16.7
+16.7TAB — talent above budget1st/30
+11.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/30
-1.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag1st/30
26%dead money %11th/30
0.562win %6th/30
48.2roster fWAR1st/30
+34surplus $M (value vs cost)3rd/30
$73Mpayroll $M19th/30

2010: made playoffs · 91–71. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFDrew Stubbs 147GJim Edmonds 52GChris Heisey 22G
LFJonny Gomes 129GLaynce Nix 50GChris Heisey 38G
RFJay Bruce 146GWillie Bloomquist 27GChris Heisey 27G
SSOrlando Cabrera 121GPaul Janish 62GChris Valaika 1G
2BBrandon Phillips 152GChris Valaika 13GPaul Janish 7G
3BScott Rolen 130GMiguel Cairo 37GJuan Francisco 12G
1BJoey Votto 148GMiguel Cairo 14GJim Edmonds 6G
STARTERSTravis Wood 2.3WARJohnny Cueto 2.3WARHomer Bailey 1.8WARMike Leake 1.7WARBronson Arroyo 1.2WAR
CRamon Hernandez 91GRyan Hanigan 68GCorky Miller 32G
DHJonny Gomes 7GMiguel Cairo 2G
BULLPEN★ Francisco Cordero 40svArthur Rhodes 26hNick Masset 20hDaniel Herrera 8hLogan Ondrusek 6hJordan Smith 2hBill Bray 2hMicah Owings 0h
CRamon Hernandez 91 · Ryan Hanigan 68 · Corky Miller 32
1BJoey Votto 148 · Miguel Cairo 14 · Jim Edmonds 6
2BBrandon Phillips 152 · Chris Valaika 13 · Paul Janish 7
3BScott Rolen 130 · Miguel Cairo 37 · Juan Francisco 12
SSOrlando Cabrera 121 · Paul Janish 62 · Chris Valaika 1
LFJonny Gomes 129 · Laynce Nix 50 · Chris Heisey 38
CFDrew Stubbs 147 · Jim Edmonds 52 · Chris Heisey 22
RFJay Bruce 146 · Willie Bloomquist 27 · Chris Heisey 27
DHJonny Gomes 7 · Miguel Cairo 2
SPTravis Wood 2.3 · Johnny Cueto 2.3 · Homer Bailey 1.8 · Mike Leake 1.7 · Bronson Arroyo 1.2
BP★ Francisco Cordero 40 · Arthur Rhodes 26 · Nick Masset 20 · Daniel Herrera 8 · Logan Ondrusek 6 · Jordan Smith 2 · Bill Bray 2 · Micah Owings 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2010 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Joey Votto 26 arb 1506.9 0.5 +15.7
Jay Bruce 23 pre-arb 1485.1 0.4 +11.6
Scott Rolen 35 FA-elig 1334.6 7.7 +3.1
Brandon Phillips 29 FA-elig 1553.8 6.9 +2.0
Drew Stubbs 25 pre-arb 1503.4 0.4 +7.5
Ryan Hanigan 29 arb 703.1 0.4 +7.0
Travis Wood 23 – 172.3 0.4 +5.1
Johnny Cueto 24 pre-arb 312.3 0.4 +5.0
Ramon Hernandez 34 FA-elig 972.1 3.9 +1.1
Homer Bailey 24 arb 191.8 0.4 +3.9
Mike Leake 22 – 281.7 0.4 +3.5
Laynce Nix 29 – 971.4 – –
Chris Heisey 25 – 971.3 0.4 +2.6
Bronson Arroyo 33 FA-elig 341.2 11.6 -8.7
Nick Masset 28 arb 820.9 1.0 +1.2
Paul Janish 27 pre-arb 820.9 0.4 +1.6
Arthur Rhodes 40 FA-elig 700.8 2.0 -0.1
Miguel Cairo 36 FA-elig 910.7 0.5 +1.2
Edinson Volquez 26 arb 120.7 0.4 +1.2
Orlando Cabrera 35 FA-elig 1230.7 2.0 -0.4
Corky Miller 34 – 320.7 – –
Aroldis Chapman 22 pre-arb 150.6 1.0 +0.4
Aaron Harang 32 FA-elig 220.6 12.5 -11.1
Francisco Cordero 35 FA-elig 750.3 12.1 -11.4
Chris Valaika 24 – 190.2 – –
Matt Maloney 26 – 70.2 – –
Drew Sutton↔ CLE 27 – 20.2 – –
Bill Bray 27 – 350.2 – –
Daniel Herrera 25 pre-arb 360.1 0.4 -0.1
Juan Francisco 23 pre-arb 360.1 0.4 -0.1
Micah Owings 27 arb 270.1 0.4 -0.3
Enerio Del Rosario↔ HOU 24 – 90.0 – –
Jared Burton 29 arb 40.0 0.8 -0.7
Carlos Fisher 27 – 180.0 – –
Russ Springer 41 – 20.0 – –
Chris Dickerson↔ MIL 28 pre-arb 200.0 0.2 -0.2
Logan Ondrusek 25 pre-arb 600.0 0.4 -0.4
Jim Edmonds↔ MIL 40 FA-elig 13-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Mike Lincoln 35 FA-elig 19-0.0 2.5 -2.6
Sam LeCure 26 – 15-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Willie Bloomquist↔ KCR 32 FA-elig 11-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Jonny Gomes 29 FA-elig 148-0.2 0.8 -1.2
Yonder Alonso 23 pre-arb 22-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Jordan Smith 24 – 37-0.3 – –

Key additions (new vs 2009)

PlayerfWAR
Travis Wood2.3
Mike Leake1.7
Chris Heisey1.3
Miguel Cairo0.7
Orlando Cabrera0.7
Aroldis Chapman0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2009)

Player2009 fWAR
Wladimir Balentien0.7
Jerry Hairston Jr.0.3
Josh Roenicke0.2
Willy Taveras0.1
Wilkin Castillo0.1
Robert Manuel0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2010 payroll
$73.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2010, 2010–2016. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Aaron Harang328.000$12.5MFREE AGENT
Francisco Cordero3511.000$12.1M$12.1MFREE AGENT
Bronson Arroyo3310.000$11.6M$7.7M$12.0M$16.4MFREE AGENT
Scott Rolen3514.000$7.7M$8.2M$6.5MFREE AGENT
Brandon Phillips298.000$6.9M$11.4M$12.0M$10.0M$11.0M$12.0M$13.0M
Ramon Hernandez3411.000$3.9M$2.9MFREE AGENT
Mike Lincoln3511.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Orlando Cabrera3513.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Arthur Rhodes4019.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Jonny Gomes297.000$800k$1.1MFREE AGENT
Miguel Cairo3614.000$500k$1.0M$1.0MFREE AGENT
Willie Bloomquist328.000$225kFREE AGENT
Jim Edmonds4017.000$128kFREE AGENT
Russ Springer4118.000—FREE AGENT
Corky Miller349.000—FREE AGENT$273k

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Nick Masset284.000$1.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Burton293.000$810kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Votto263.000$525kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edinson Volquez265.000$445kFREE AGENT
Micah Owings273.000$440kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Homer Bailey243.000$418kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Hanigan293.000$415kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Laynce Nix294.070—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bill Bray274.018—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Aroldis Chapman220.000$1.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yonder Alonso230.000$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johnny Cueto242.000$445kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Bruce232.000$440kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Herrera252.000$412kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Janish272.000$412kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Stubbs251.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Ondrusek250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Wood230.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Francisco231.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Heisey250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam LeCure260.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Leake220.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Dickerson282.000$184kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Sutton271.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Valaika240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Fisher271.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Maloney261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enerio Del Rosario240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Smith240.146—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2010; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.