CIN⇄CHW

CINCIN Walt Jocketty net +$3.2M net +1.2

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2009 odds 3% → 4% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Corky MillerC·33y·R/R

−$1.6M−$1.6M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.3/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.13/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$3.2M net -1.2

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.9 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2009 odds 5% → 5% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Norris HopperOF·30y·R/R

+$9.7M+$9.7M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.9± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.67/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.72 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.