RRosternomics

White Sox CHW

President of baseball ops: Kenny Williams · GM: Rick Hahn

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.95× league · TAB -7.4
-7.4TAB — talent above budget22nd/30
-5.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)20th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars17th/30
-5.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag18th/30
48%dead money %22nd/30
0.469win %20th/30
26.2roster fWAR24th/30
-32surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/30
$115Mpayroll $M16th/30

Roster

CFAdam Eaton 145GJB Shuck 11GTrayce Thompson 10G
LFMelky Cabrera 150GTrayce Thompson 12GJB Shuck 10G
RFAvisaíl García 130GJB Shuck 27GTrayce Thompson 18G
SSAlexei Ramirez 152GTyler Saladino 11GGordon Beckham 5G
2BYolmer Sánchez 117GMicah Johnson 33GEmilio Bonifácio 17G
3BGordon Beckham 76GTyler Saladino 60GMike Olt 26G
1BJosé Abreu 115GAdam LaRoche 48GMike Olt 5G
STARTERSChris Sale 5.6WARJose Quintana 4.2WARJeff Samardzija 2.4WARCarlos Rodón 1.7WARJohn Danks 1.3WAR
CTyler Flowers 110GGeovany Soto 73GRob Brantly 14G
DHAdam LaRoche 74GJosé Abreu 39GAvisaíl García 17G
BULLPEN David Robertson 34svZach Duke 26hJake Petricka 12hZach Putnam 6hNate Jones 6hMatt Albers 6hDan Jennings 4hDaniel Webb 0h
CTyler Flowers 110 · Geovany Soto 73 · Rob Brantly 14
1BJosé Abreu 115 · Adam LaRoche 48 · Mike Olt 5
2BYolmer Sánchez 117 · Micah Johnson 33 · Emilio Bonifácio 17
3BGordon Beckham 76 · Tyler Saladino 60 · Mike Olt 26
SSAlexei Ramirez 152 · Tyler Saladino 11 · Gordon Beckham 5
LFMelky Cabrera 150 · Trayce Thompson 12 · JB Shuck 10
CFAdam Eaton 145 · JB Shuck 11 · Trayce Thompson 10
RFAvisaíl García 130 · JB Shuck 27 · Trayce Thompson 18
DHAdam LaRoche 74 · José Abreu 39 · Avisaíl García 17
SPChris Sale 5.6 · Jose Quintana 4.2 · Jeff Samardzija 2.4 · Carlos Rodón 1.7 · John Danks 1.3
BP David Robertson 34 · Zach Duke 26 · Jake Petricka 12 · Zach Putnam 6 · Nate Jones 6 · Matt Albers 6 · Dan Jennings 4 · Daniel Webb 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2015 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Chris Sale 26 arb 315.6 6.0 +11.6
Jose Quintana 26 arb 324.2 3.4 +9.8
Adam Eaton 26 arb 1533.9 0.8 +11.3
José Abreu 28 pre-arb 1543.3 8.7 +1.8
Tyler Flowers 29 FA-elig 1122.4 2.7 +4.9
Jeff Samardzija 30 FA-elig 322.4 9.8 -2.3
David Robertson 30 FA-elig 601.7 10.0 -4.6
Carlos Rodón 22 261.7 0.5 +4.9
Geovany Soto 32 FA-elig 781.6 1.5 +3.4
Trayce Thompson 24 441.4 0.2 +4.3
John Danks 30 FA-elig 301.3 15.8 -11.6
Dan Jennings 28 arb 530.4 0.5 +0.8
Jake Petricka 27 pre-arb 620.4 0.5 +0.7
Gordon Beckham 28 FA-elig 1000.4 2.0 -0.9
Matt Albers 32 FA-elig 300.3 1.5 -0.6
Tyler Saladino 25 680.3 0.2 +0.6
Frankie Montas 22 70.2 0.1 +0.5
Scott Carroll 30 pre-arb 180.2 0.2 +0.3
Alexei Ramirez 33 FA-elig 1540.1 10.0 -9.6
Zach Putnam 27 arb 490.1 0.5 -0.3
Melky Cabrera 30 FA-elig 1580.1 13.0 -12.8
Chris Beck 24 10.1 0.0 +0.2
Yolmer Sánchez 23 pre-arb 1200.0 0.5 -0.4
Javy Guerra 29 arb 30.0 0.9 -0.9
Erik Johnson 25 pre-arb 6-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Junior Guerra 30 3-0.0
Kyle Drabek 27 arb 3-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Nate Jones 29 arb 19-0.1 0.7 -0.9
Leury García 24 pre-arb 18-0.1 0.1 -0.4
JB Shuck 28 arb 79-0.2 0.5 -1.2
Micah Johnson 24 pre-arb 36-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Daniel Webb 25 pre-arb 27-0.3 0.4 -1.2
Hector Noesí 28 arb 10-0.3 1.9 -2.8
Avisaíl García 24 arb 148-0.3 0.5 -1.5
Zach Duke 32 FA-elig 71-0.5 4.5 -6.0
Rob Brantly 25 pre-arb 14-0.5 0.5 -2.0
Mike Olt↔ CHC 26 arb 24-0.5 0.4 -1.9
Emilio Bonifácio 30 FA-elig 47-0.8 3.0 -5.4
Conor Gillaspie↔ ANA 27 FA-elig 58-0.8 0.4 -2.9
Adam LaRoche 35 FA-elig 127-1.2 12.0 -15.7

Key additions (new vs 2014)

PlayerfWAR
Jeff Samardzija2.4
David Robertson1.7
Carlos Rodón1.7
Geovany Soto1.6
Trayce Thompson1.4
Dan Jennings0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2014)

Player2014 fWAR
Chris Bassitt0.7
Moisés Sierra0.6
Marcus Semien0.5
Adam Dunn0.4
Ronald Belisario0.4
Alejandro De Aza0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2015 payroll
$115.1M
2016 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2015, 2015–2021. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2015; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
John Danks308.000$15.8MFREE AGENT
Melky Cabrera308.148$13.0MFREE AGENT
Adam LaRoche3511.000$12.0MFREE AGENT
Alexei Ramirez337.000$10.0MFREE AGENT
David Robertson306.070$10.0MFREE AGENT
Zach Duke328.054$4.5MFREE AGENT
Emilio Bonifácio308.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Geovany Soto327.096$1.5MFREE AGENT
Matt Albers327.141$1.5MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Jeff Samardzija305.028$9.8MFREE AGENT
Chris Sale264.061$6.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Flowers293.148$2.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gordon Beckham285.123$2.0MFREE AGENT
Hector Noesí283.006$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javy Guerra294.000$938kARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Jones293.000$660kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Drabek275.000$518kFREE AGENT
Trayce Thompson245.010$172kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
José Abreu281.000$8.7MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Quintana262.133$3.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Eaton262.030$850kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Putnam271.135$525kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Avisaíl García241.167$523kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Jennings281.171$523kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Petricka271.044$520kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JB Shuck281.111$516kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yolmer Sánchez230.045$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Brantly251.038$507kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Rodón220.000$463kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Conor Gillaspie272.069$425kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Olt261.030$416kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Webb251.027$358kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Saladino250.000$241kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Carroll300.154$197kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Micah Johnson241.046$183kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Leury García241.116$139kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Frankie Montas220.000$94kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Johnson250.089$92kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Beck240.000$6kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junior Guerra300.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = White Sox 2015; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3