CHW⇄LAD

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$0.8M net +0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $26M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.9 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2015 odds 3% → 3% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Blake SmithP·27y·L/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.9± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#56 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.79 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net −$0.8M net -0.2

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $23M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2015 odds 85% → 85% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eric SurkampP·27y·L/L

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#177 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

-0.07/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.