CHW⇄COL

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$8.0M net +1.3

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $24M expected surplus · +$7.2M realized received 0.5 ± 3 expected · 1.4 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Tommy KahnleP·26y·R/R

−$1.1M−$1.1M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$7.2M 0.5± 3 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

#175 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.10/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Jeff Bridich net −$8.0M net -1.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $18M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Yency AlmonteP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#537 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.