CHC⇄PIT

CHCCHC Jed Hoyer net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2022 odds 3% → 3% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

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PITPIT Ben Cherington net −$0.8M net -0.1

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $12M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.3 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2022 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eric StoutP·29y·L/L

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $12M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#393 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.1/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.43 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.