RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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GM: Randy Bush

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.3× league · TAB -12.3
-12.3TAB — talent above budget28th/30
-14.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)28th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars11th/30
-6.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag23rd/30
19%dead money %4th/30
0.438win %24th/30
25.1roster fWAR25th/30
-61surplus $M (value vs cost)28th/30
$124Mpayroll $M7th/30

Roster

CFMarlon Byrd 118GTony Campana 29GReed Johnson 24G
LFAlfonso Soriano 128GTony Campana 35GReed Johnson 27G
RFReed Johnson 44GTyler Colvin 44GLuis Montanez 14G
SSStarlin Castro 158GDarwin Barney 5G
2BDarwin Barney 135GJeff Baker 18GBlake DeWitt 18G
3BAramis Ramirez 145GBlake DeWitt 14GJeff Baker 11G
1BCarlos Pena 153GJeff Baker 19GTyler Colvin 4G
STARTERSMatt Garza 4.3WARRyan Dempster 2.1WARCarlos Zambrano 1.4WARDoug Davis 0.5WARCasey Coleman 0.4WAR
CGeovany Soto 122GKoyie Hill 45GWelington Castillo 4G
DHJeff Baker 3GAramis Ramirez 3GAlfonso Soriano 3G
BULLPEN★ Carlos Marmol 34svSean Marshall 34hKerry Wood 21hJeff Samardzija 13hJohn Grabow 5hMarcos Mateo 2hRamón Ortiz 1hChris Carpenter 0h
CGeovany Soto 122 · Koyie Hill 45 · Welington Castillo 4
1BCarlos Pena 153 · Jeff Baker 19 · Tyler Colvin 4
2BDarwin Barney 135 · Jeff Baker 18 · Blake DeWitt 18
3BAramis Ramirez 145 · Blake DeWitt 14 · Jeff Baker 11
SSStarlin Castro 158 · Darwin Barney 5
LFAlfonso Soriano 128 · Tony Campana 35 · Reed Johnson 27
CFMarlon Byrd 118 · Tony Campana 29 · Reed Johnson 24
RFReed Johnson 44 · Tyler Colvin 44 · Luis Montanez 14
DHJeff Baker 3 · Aramis Ramirez 3 · Alfonso Soriano 3
SPMatt Garza 4.3 · Ryan Dempster 2.1 · Carlos Zambrano 1.4 · Doug Davis 0.5 · Casey Coleman 0.4
BP★ Carlos Marmol 34 · Sean Marshall 34 · Kerry Wood 21 · Jeff Samardzija 13 · John Grabow 5 · Marcos Mateo 2 · Ramón Ortiz 1 · Chris Carpenter 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2011 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Matt Garza 27 arb 314.3 6.0 +4.5
Aramis Ramirez 33 FA-elig 1493.3 14.6 -6.4
Geovany Soto 28 FA-elig 1253.1 3.0 +4.5
Starlin Castro 21 pre-arb 1582.7 0.4 +6.3
Sean Marshall 28 arb 782.6 1.6 +4.7
Carlos Pena 33 FA-elig 1532.5 10.0 -3.9
Ryan Dempster 34 FA-elig 352.1 13.5 -8.4
Marlon Byrd 33 FA-elig 1191.7 5.5 -1.2
Darwin Barney 25 pre-arb 1431.6 0.4 +3.4
Tony Campana 25 – 951.4 0.4 +3.0
Carlos Zambrano 30 FA-elig 251.4 18.9 -15.5
Reed Johnson 34 FA-elig 1111.1 0.9 +1.8
Alfonso Soriano 35 FA-elig 1371.1 19.0 -16.4
Carlos Marmol 28 arb 750.6 2.5 -1.0
Jeff Samardzija 26 arb 750.5 3.3 -2.0
Doug Davis 35 – 90.5 – –
Casey Coleman 23 pre-arb 210.4 0.4 +0.7
Kerry Wood 34 FA-elig 550.4 1.5 -0.6
Bryan LaHair 28 pre-arb 200.2 0.4 +0.2
Marcos Mateo 27 pre-arb 230.2 0.4 -0.0
Blake DeWitt 25 arb 1210.0 0.5 -0.4
Andrew Cashner 24 pre-arb 70.0 0.4 -0.4
John Gaub 26 pre-arb 40.0 0.4 -0.4
Rafael Dolis 23 – 10.0 0.4 -0.4
Steve Clevenger 25 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Luis Montanez 29 – 36-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Chris Carpenter 25 pre-arb 10-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Justin Berg 27 – 8-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Brad Snyder 29 – 8-0.1 – –
DJ LeMahieu 22 – 37-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Jeff Stevens 27 – 4-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Ramon Ortiz 38 FA-elig 22-0.2 0.2 -0.7
James Russell 25 pre-arb 64-0.2 0.4 -1.0
Kosuke Fukudome↔ CLE 34 arb 87-0.3 8.6 -9.3
Welington Castillo 24 pre-arb 4-0.3 0.4 -1.1
Jeff Baker 30 FA-elig 81-0.3 1.2 -2.0
Randy Wells 28 arb 23-0.4 0.5 -1.4
Scott Maine 26 pre-arb 7-0.4 0.4 -1.4
John Grabow 32 FA-elig 58-0.6 4.8 -6.2
Rodrigo Lopez 35 – 26-0.8 – –
Tyler Colvin 25 pre-arb 80-1.1 0.4 -3.2
Koyie Hill 32 FA-elig 46-1.4 0.8 -4.3

Key additions (new vs 2010)

PlayerfWAR
Matt Garza4.3
Carlos Pena2.5
Tony Campana1.4
Reed Johnson1.1
Doug Davis0.5
Kerry Wood0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2010)

Player2010 fWAR
Tom Gorzelanny1.6
Ted Lilly1.3
Derrek Lee0.9
Bobby Scales0.1
Chad Tracy0.0
Mike Fontenot-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2011 payroll
$123.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2011, 2011–2017. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Alfonso Soriano3510.079$19.0M$18.0M$11.1MFREE AGENT
Carlos Zambrano309.042$18.9MFREE AGENT
Aramis Ramirez3311.111$14.6MFREE AGENT
Ryan Dempster3412.063$13.5M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos Pena337.133$10.0MFREE AGENT
Marlon Byrd337.045$5.5M$4.7MFREE AGENT
John Grabow327.016$4.8MFREE AGENT
Kerry Wood3412.169$1.5M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Reed Johnson347.145$900k$734kFREE AGENT
Chris Carpenter2513.080$414kFREE AGENT
Ramon Ortiz389.098$199kFREE AGENT
Doug Davis3512.000—FREE AGENT
Rodrigo Lopez3511.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Kosuke Fukudome343.000$8.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Garza273.149$6.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Geovany Soto283.096$3.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Marmol284.084$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Marshall284.088$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Baker304.049$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Koyie Hill324.006$850kARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Wells283.016$475kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Montanez293.000$294kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Jeff Samardzija261.028$3.3MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake DeWitt252.048$460kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Colvin251.014$440kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Starlin Castro210.150$440kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Cashner240.126$428kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Russell251.000$428kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darwin Barney250.053$417kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcos Mateo271.000$417kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Dolis230.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Gaub260.023$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan LaHair280.073$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Berg272.000$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Maine260.165$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Welington Castillo240.045$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Campana250.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Coleman230.063$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Stevens272.000$133kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
DJ LeMahieu220.000$120kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Clevenger252.123$23kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Snyder29–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2011; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.