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January 8, 2011

TBR⇄CHC

TBR won this trade +$257.6M surplus TBR won this trade +18.9 WAR
TBRTBR Andrew Friedman net +$257.6M net +18.9
received +$32.0M+$32.0M ± $59M expected surplus · +$304.8M realized received 7.3 ± 7 expected · 24.5 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2011 odds 79% → 66% (-12.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Chris ArcherP·22y·R/R
+$27.4M+$27.4M± $45M exp surplusrealized +$272.0M 4.1± 6 exp WARrealized 18.7
Prior
Composite #27.0 prospect (Baseball America #27 (2011)) → 0.74/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.74/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Brandon GuyerOF·25y·R/R
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$27.2M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 4.7
Prior
#157 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Sam FuldOF·29y·L/L
+$1.6M+$1.6M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 0.8± 2 exp WARrealized 1.7
Prior
#306 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 0.5/yr over 0.4 season
Talent
0.27/yr blended
Horizon
5.0 control yrs × 0.56 age decline
Robinson ChirinosC·27y·R/R
+$0.7M+$0.7M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.6
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs × 0.82 age decline
Hak-Ju Lee
+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0
Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)
CHCCHC Randy Bush net −$257.6M net -18.9
received +$62.4M+$62.4M ± $43M expected surplus · +$47.2M realized received 7.9 ± 5 expected · 5.6 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2011 odds 1% → 2% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Matt GarzaP·27y·R/R
+$53.6M+$53.6M± $34M exp surplusrealized +$51.2M 5.2± 4 exp WARrealized 6.1
Prior
league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.33/yr
Evidence
recent form 2.5/yr over 2.3 seasons
Talent
1.74/yr blended
Horizon
3.0 control yrs
Fernando PerezOF·28y·B/R
+$7.0M+$7.0M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#195 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 2.1/yr over 0.1 season
Talent
0.41/yr blended
Horizon
4.0 control yrs × 0.94 age decline
Zac RosscupP·23y·R/L
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.5
Prior
#859 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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