COL⇄CHC

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net +$72.8M net +14.5

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $38M expected surplus · +$68.0M realized received 1.3 ± 5 expected · 14.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2012 odds 0% → 1% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tyler ColvinOF·26y·L/L

+$1.0M+$1.0M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 0.9± 3 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.35/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DJ LeMahieu2B·23y·R/R

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$64.8M 0.4± 3 exp WARrealized 13.1

Prior

#79 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.6/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.08/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Randy Bush net −$72.8M net -14.5

received +$22.4M+$22.4M ± $49M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 5.6 ± 6 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2012 odds 0% → 0% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Casey WeathersP·27y·R/R

+$20.4M+$20.4M± $47M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 4.9± 6 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#8 overall draft pick → 0.88/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.88/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Ian Stewart3B·27y·L/R

+$1.7M+$1.7M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.31/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.36/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.