RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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GM: Jim Hendry

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.51× league · TAB -12.1
-12.1TAB — talent above budget27th/30
-12.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)27th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars18th/30
-7.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag25th/30
24%dead money %6th/30
0.463win %23rd/30
27.3roster fWAR22nd/30
-74surplus $M (value vs cost)28th/30
$138Mpayroll $M4th/30

Roster

CFMarlon Byrd 151GTyler Colvin 18GSam Fuld 7G
LFAlfonso Soriano 134GTyler Colvin 55GSam Fuld 8G
RFKosuke Fukudome 110GTyler Colvin 59GXavier Nady 23G
SSStarlin Castro 123GRyan Theriot 29GDarwin Barney 11G
2BBlake DeWitt 126GJeff Baker 26GDarwin Barney 10G
3BAramis Ramirez 118GJeff Baker 33GBobby Scales 7G
1BXavier Nady 52GMicah Hoffpauir 12GJeff Baker 4G
STARTERSRandy Wells 2.6WARCarlos Zambrano 2.3WARRyan Dempster 2.3WARTom Gorzelanny 1.6WARCarlos Silva 1.5WAR
CGeovany Soto 104GKoyie Hill 72GWelington Castillo 5G
DHDerrek Lee 3GXavier Nady 2GMarlon Byrd 1G
BULLPEN★ Carlos Marmol 38svSean Marshall 22hAndrew Cashner 16hJohn Grabow 7hJames Russell 6hJustin Berg 5hBob Howry 3hMarcos Mateo 1h
CGeovany Soto 104 · Koyie Hill 72 · Welington Castillo 5
1BXavier Nady 52 · Micah Hoffpauir 12 · Jeff Baker 4
2BBlake DeWitt 126 · Jeff Baker 26 · Darwin Barney 10
3BAramis Ramirez 118 · Jeff Baker 33 · Bobby Scales 7
SSStarlin Castro 123 · Ryan Theriot 29 · Darwin Barney 11
LFAlfonso Soriano 134 · Tyler Colvin 55 · Sam Fuld 8
CFMarlon Byrd 151 · Tyler Colvin 18 · Sam Fuld 7
RFKosuke Fukudome 110 · Tyler Colvin 59 · Xavier Nady 23
DHDerrek Lee 3 · Xavier Nady 2 · Marlon Byrd 1
SPRandy Wells 2.6 · Carlos Zambrano 2.3 · Ryan Dempster 2.3 · Tom Gorzelanny 1.6 · Carlos Silva 1.5
BP★ Carlos Marmol 38 · Sean Marshall 22 · Andrew Cashner 16 · John Grabow 7 · James Russell 6 · Justin Berg 5 · Bob Howry 3 · Marcos Mateo 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2010 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Marlon Byrd 32 FA-elig 1523.9 3.0 +6.2
Geovany Soto 27 arb 1053.8 0.6 +8.4
Carlos Marmol 27 arb 772.7 2.1 +4.3
Alfonso Soriano 34 FA-elig 1472.7 19.0 -12.7
Randy Wells 27 pre-arb 322.6 0.4 +5.8
Ryan Dempster 33 FA-elig 352.3 13.5 -8.0
Carlos Zambrano 29 FA-elig 422.3 18.9 -13.5
Sean Marshall 27 arb 801.8 0.9 +3.3
Starlin Castro 20 – 1251.8 0.3 +3.9
Tyler Colvin 24 pre-arb 1351.8 0.4 +3.8
Tom Gorzelanny 27 arb 291.6 0.8 +3.0
Carlos Silva 31 FA-elig 211.5 12.8 -9.1
Ted Lilly↔ LAD 34 FA-elig 181.3 7.8 -4.7
Kosuke Fukudome 33 pre-arb 1301.2 14.0 -11.2
Jeff Baker 29 arb 791.0 1.0 +1.3
Derrek Lee↔ ATL 34 FA-elig 1090.9 9.8 -7.7
Darwin Barney 24 – 300.5 0.1 +1.1
Casey Coleman 22 – 120.4 – –
Welington Castillo 23 – 70.3 – –
Scott Maine 25 – 130.1 – –
Bobby Scales 32 – 100.1 – –
Chad Tracy↔ MIA 30 FA-elig 280.0 0.4 -0.3
Mike Fontenot↔ SFG 30 arb 75-0.0 0.7 -0.7
Aramis Ramirez 32 FA-elig 124-0.0 16.8 -16.8
Bob Howry↔ ARI 36 FA-elig 24-0.0 1.3 -1.3
Brad Snyder 28 – 12-0.0 – –
Thomas Diamond 27 – 16-0.1 – –
Jeff Gray 28 – 7-0.1 – –
Mitch Atkins 24 – 5-0.1 – –
Blake DeWitt↔ LAD 24 pre-arb 53-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Sam Fuld 28 arb 19-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Esmailin Caridad 26 pre-arb 8-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Brian Schlitter 24 – 7-0.2 0.2 -0.8
Marcos Mateo 26 – 21-0.3 – –
Justin Berg 26 pre-arb 41-0.3 0.4 -1.2
John Grabow 31 FA-elig 28-0.4 2.7 -3.5
Jeff Stevens 26 – 18-0.4 – –
Jeff Samardzija 25 pre-arb 7-0.4 3.0 -3.9
James Russell 24 pre-arb 57-0.4 0.4 -1.4
Micah Hoffpauir 30 pre-arb 24-0.5 0.0 -1.3
Andrew Cashner 23 – 53-0.6 0.4 -1.9
Ryan Theriot↔ LAD 30 arb 96-0.6 1.7 -3.2
Xavier Nady 31 FA-elig 119-0.7 3.3 -5.0
Koyie Hill 31 FA-elig 77-1.6 0.7 -4.4

Key additions (new vs 2009)

PlayerfWAR
Marlon Byrd3.9
Starlin Castro1.8
Carlos Silva1.5
Darwin Barney0.5
Casey Coleman0.4
Welington Castillo0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2009)

Player2009 fWAR
Rich Harden2.0
Milton Bradley0.7
Aaron Heilman0.3
Reed Johnson0.2
Luis Vizcaino0.2
Jose Ascanio0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2010 payroll
$138.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2010, 2010–2016. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Alfonso Soriano3411.000$19.0M$19.0M$18.0M$11.1MFREE AGENT
Carlos Zambrano299.000$18.9M$18.9MFREE AGENT
Aramis Ramirez3212.000$16.8M$14.6MFREE AGENT
Ryan Dempster3312.000$13.5M$13.5M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos Silva318.000$12.8MFREE AGENT
Derrek Lee3413.000$9.8MFREE AGENT
Ted Lilly3411.000$7.8MFREE AGENT
Xavier Nady3110.000$3.3MFREE AGENT
Marlon Byrd328.000$3.0M$5.5M$4.7MFREE AGENT
John Grabow317.000$2.7M$4.8MFREE AGENT
Bob Howry3612.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Koyie Hill317.000$700k$850kFREE AGENT
Chad Tracy306.000$365kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Carlos Marmol274.000$2.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Theriot305.000$1.7MFREE AGENT
Jeff Baker295.000$975kFREE AGENT
Sean Marshall274.000$950kARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Gorzelanny275.000$800kFREE AGENT
Mike Fontenot305.000$728kFREE AGENT
Geovany Soto275.000$575kFREE AGENT
Sam Fuld283.000$400kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Kosuke Fukudome332.000$14.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Samardzija252.000$3.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Wells272.000$427kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Berg261.000$403kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Esmailin Caridad261.000$403kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Colvin241.000$401kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Russell240.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Cashner230.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Starlin Castro200.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Schlitter240.000$220kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake DeWitt242.000$161kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darwin Barney240.000$114kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Micah Hoffpauir302.000$0kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Snyder28–—
Thomas Diamond27–—
Mitch Atkins24–—
Scott Maine250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Welington Castillo230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcos Mateo260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Scales32–—
Jeff Stevens261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Gray282.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Coleman220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2010; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.