LAD⇄CHC

LADLAD Ned Colletti net −$52.8M net +3.7

received +$21.6M+$21.6M ± $38M expected surplus · −$59.2M realized received 7.4 ± 5 expected · 3.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2010 odds 6% → 7% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ryan Theriot2B/SS·30y·R/R

+$24.2M+$24.2M± $32M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 4.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.3/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

1.55/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Ted LillyP·34y·L/L

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$55.2M 3.1± 2 exp WARrealized 3.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.0/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

2.17/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net +$52.8M net -3.7

received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $46M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 5.2 ± 6 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2010 odds 5% → 4% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Blake DeWitt2B/3B·24y·L/R

+$7.9M+$7.9M± $33M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 2.6± 4 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.30/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.66/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Brett WallachP·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#96 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Kyle SmitP·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#143 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.