SFG⇄CHC

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net −$0.8M net +0.7

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $22M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 2.7 ± 3 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2010 odds 68% → 67% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Fontenot2B·30y·L/R

+$8.0M+$8.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 2.7± 3 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.29/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.02/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net +$0.8M net -0.7

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2010 odds 3% → 4% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Evan CrawfordP·23y·R/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#249 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.