RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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GM: Jim Hendry

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.53× league · TAB -6.5
-6.5TAB — talent above budget25th/30
-3.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)20th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars6th/30
-4.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag13th/30
28%dead money %8th/30
0.516win %16th/30
32.8roster fWAR16th/30
-63surplus $M (value vs cost)28th/30
$140Mpayroll $M3rd/30

Roster

CFKosuke Fukudome 113GReed Johnson 42GSam Fuld 26G
LFAlfonso Soriano 116GSam Fuld 29GJake Fox 23G
RFMilton Bradley 108GKosuke Fukudome 44GMicah Hoffpauir 25G
SSRyan Theriot 151GAndrés Blanco 15GAaron Miles 8G
2BMike Fontenot 70GJeff Baker 52GAndrés Blanco 40G
3BAramis Ramirez 79GMike Fontenot 50GJake Fox 27G
1BDerrek Lee 139GMicah Hoffpauir 27GJake Fox 7G
STARTERSCarlos Zambrano 4.5WARRyan Dempster 3.5WARRandy Wells 3.4WARTed Lilly 3.4WARRich Harden 2.0WAR
CGeovany Soto 96GKoyie Hill 79GJake Fox 3G
DHJake Fox 3GMicah Hoffpauir 2GDerrek Lee 1G
BULLPEN★ Kevin Gregg 23svCarlos Marmol 27hJohn Grabow 24hAngel Guzman 15hAaron Heilman 10hNeal Cotts 2hJeff Samardzija 1hDavid Patton 0h
CGeovany Soto 96 · Koyie Hill 79 · Jake Fox 3
1BDerrek Lee 139 · Micah Hoffpauir 27 · Jake Fox 7
2BMike Fontenot 70 · Jeff Baker 52 · Andrés Blanco 40
3BAramis Ramirez 79 · Mike Fontenot 50 · Jake Fox 27
SSRyan Theriot 151 · Andrés Blanco 15 · Aaron Miles 8
LFAlfonso Soriano 116 · Sam Fuld 29 · Jake Fox 23
CFKosuke Fukudome 113 · Reed Johnson 42 · Sam Fuld 26
RFMilton Bradley 108 · Kosuke Fukudome 44 · Micah Hoffpauir 25
DHJake Fox 3 · Micah Hoffpauir 2 · Derrek Lee 1
SPCarlos Zambrano 4.5 · Ryan Dempster 3.5 · Randy Wells 3.4 · Ted Lilly 3.4 · Rich Harden 2.0
BP★ Kevin Gregg 23 · Carlos Marmol 27 · John Grabow 24 · Angel Guzman 15 · Aaron Heilman 10 · Neal Cotts 2 · Jeff Samardzija 1 · David Patton 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2009 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Derrek Lee 33 FA-elig 1415.2 13.2 -0.8
Carlos Zambrano 28 FA-elig 354.5 18.8 -8.1
Ryan Dempster 32 FA-elig 313.5 9.0 -0.7
Ted Lilly 33 FA-elig 273.4 13.0 -4.8
Randy Wells 26 pre-arb 273.4 0.4 +7.6
Kosuke Fukudome 32 pre-arb 1462.4 12.5 -6.9
Ryan Theriot 29 arb 1542.2 0.5 +4.7
Aramis Ramirez 31 FA-elig 822.1 16.6 -11.7
Rich Harden 27 FA-elig 272.0 7.0 -2.2
Jeff Baker↔ COL 28 arb 691.5 0.4 +3.3
Geovany Soto 26 arb 1021.2 0.6 +2.3
Carlos Marmol 26 arb 790.8 0.6 +1.4
Milton Bradley 31 FA-elig 1240.7 7.0 -5.3
Sean Marshall 26 arb 550.7 0.5 +1.2
Sam Fuld 27 pre-arb 650.6 0.4 +1.1
Tom Gorzelanny↔ PIT 26 arb 130.5 0.3 +1.0
Esmailin Caridad 25 – 140.5 – –
Bobby Scales 31 – 510.4 – –
Mike Fontenot 29 arb 1350.3 0.4 +0.2
Aaron Heilman 30 FA-elig 700.3 1.6 -1.0
John Grabow↔ PIT 30 FA-elig 300.2 0.9 -0.4
Justin Berg 25 pre-arb 110.2 0.4 +0.1
Reed Johnson 32 FA-elig 650.2 3.0 -2.6
Luis Vizcaino↔ CLE 34 FA-elig 40.2 0.9 -0.6
Jose Ascanio↔ PIT 24 pre-arb 140.1 0.4 -0.1
Jason Waddell 28 – 30.1 – –
Jake Fox 26 pre-arb 820.1 0.4 -0.2
Angel Guzman 27 arb 550.0 0.4 -0.3
Mitch Atkins 23 – 20.0 – –
Kevin Hart↔ PIT 26 pre-arb 80.0 0.2 -0.2
Micah Hoffpauir 29 pre-arb 105-0.0 0.4 -0.5
So Taguchi 39 – 6-0.0 – –
Chad Fox 38 – 2-0.1 – –
Andrés Blanco 25 – 53-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Tyler Colvin 23 – 6-0.1 – –
Jeff Stevens 25 pre-arb 11-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Alfonso Soriano 33 FA-elig 117-0.1 17.0 -17.3
Jeff Samardzija 24 pre-arb 20-0.2 2.0 -2.5
Joey Gathright↔ BOS 28 arb 20-0.3 0.4 -1.1
David Patton 25 pre-arb 20-0.3 0.4 -1.0
Kevin Gregg 31 FA-elig 72-0.3 4.2 -4.8
Ryan Freel↔ BAL 33 FA-elig 14-0.3 1.4 -2.0
Neal Cotts 29 FA-elig 19-0.4 1.1 -2.1
Koyie Hill 30 FA-elig 83-0.7 0.5 -2.1
Aaron Miles 32 FA-elig 74-1.4 2.2 -5.6

Key additions (new vs 2008)

PlayerfWAR
Jeff Baker1.5
Milton Bradley0.7
Sam Fuld0.6
Tom Gorzelanny0.5
Esmailin Caridad0.5
Bobby Scales0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2008)

Player2008 fWAR
Mark DeRosa4.2
Jason Marquis2.2
Kerry Wood2.1
Jim Edmonds1.5
Sean Gallagher0.7
Henry Blanco0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2009 payroll
$139.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2009, 2009–2015. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Carlos Zambrano288.000$18.8M$18.9M$18.9MFREE AGENT
Alfonso Soriano3310.000$17.0M$19.0M$19.0M$18.0M$11.1MFREE AGENT
Aramis Ramirez3111.000$16.6M$16.8M$14.6MFREE AGENT
Derrek Lee3312.000$13.2M$9.8MFREE AGENT
Ted Lilly3310.000$13.0M$7.8MFREE AGENT
Ryan Dempster3211.000$9.0M$13.5M$13.5M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Milton Bradley319.000$7.0MFREE AGENT
Rich Harden276.000$7.0MFREE AGENT
Kevin Gregg316.000$4.2MFREE AGENT$450k
Reed Johnson326.000$3.0MFREE AGENT$900k$734k
Aaron Miles326.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Aaron Heilman306.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Ryan Freel338.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Neal Cotts296.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Luis Vizcaino3410.000$933kFREE AGENT
John Grabow306.000$920k$2.7M$4.8MFREE AGENT
Koyie Hill306.000$475k$700k$850kFREE AGENT
Chad Fox3812.000—FREE AGENT
So Taguchi397.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Carlos Marmol263.000$575kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Geovany Soto264.000$575kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Theriot294.000$500kARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Marshall263.000$450kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Gathright285.000$432kFREE AGENT
Mike Fontenot294.000$430kARB 3FREE AGENT
Angel Guzman273.000$422kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrés Blanco255.000$400kFREE AGENT
Jeff Baker284.000$354kARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Gorzelanny264.000$256kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Kosuke Fukudome321.000$12.5MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Samardzija241.000$2.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Micah Hoffpauir291.000$408kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Wells261.000$402kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Fox262.000$402kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Fuld272.000$402kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Stevens250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Patton250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Berg250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Ascanio242.000$354kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Hart262.000$181kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Atkins23–—
Jason Waddell28–—
Bobby Scales31–—
Tyler Colvin230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Esmailin Caridad250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2009; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.