PIT⇄CHC

PITPIT Neal Huntington net +$38.4M net +10.6

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $41M expected surplus · +$50.4M realized received 2.1 ± 5 expected · 12.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2009 odds 2% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Josh Harrison2B/3B·21y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$52.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 11.9

Prior

#191 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Kevin HartP·26y·R/R

−$0.1M−$0.1M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.7± 3 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

#319 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

José AscanioP·24y·R/R

−$3.4M−$3.4M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.04/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net −$38.4M net -10.6

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $29M expected surplus · +$12.0M realized received 2.7 ± 4 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2009 odds 11% → 12% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tom GorzelannyP·26y·R/L

+$14.9M+$14.9M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$15.2M 2.3± 4 exp WARrealized 2.2

Prior

#45 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.58/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

John GrabowP·30y·L/L

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.84 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.