COL⇄CHC

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net +$38.4M net +3.1

received −$6.4M−$20.0M ± $14M expected surplus · +$32.8M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · 3.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2009 odds 24% → 39% (+15.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason MarquisP·30y·L/R

−$6.0M−$20.0M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$32.8M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized 3.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

1.12/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net −$38.4M net -3.1

received −$5.6M−$6.4M ± $6M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2009 odds 22% → 12% (-9.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luis VizcaínoP·34y·R/R

−$5.7M−$6.4M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.68 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.