CHC⇄OAK

CHCCHC Andy MacPhail net +$22.4M net +3.7

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $30M expected surplus · +$22.4M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · 3.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2002 odds 8% → 17% (+9.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark Bellhorn2B/3B·27y·B/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$22.4M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 3.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.25/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.8/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$22.4M net -3.7

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2002 odds 90% → 79% (-11.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Adam Morrissey

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.