CHC⇄KCR

CHCCHC Andy MacPhail net +$12.8M net +0.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2002 odds 20% → 17% (-3.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shawn SonnierP·25y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#403 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Allard Baird net −$12.8M net +0.0

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $15M expected surplus · −$12.8M realized received 1.5 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2002 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Michael TuckerOF·31y·L/R

−$2.6M−$2.6M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$12.8M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.26/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

1.08/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.