RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

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President of baseball ops: Chaim Bloom · GM: Brian O'Halloran

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.17× league · TAB -8.3
-8.3TAB — talent above budget23rd/30
-5.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)22nd/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/30
-4.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag14th/30
31%dead money %13th/30
0.481win %19th/30
27.9roster fWAR22nd/30
-68surplus $M (value vs cost)25th/30
$179Mpayroll $M11th/30

Roster

CFJarren Duran 75GAdam Duvall 61GCeddanne Rafaela 20G
LFMasataka Yoshida 87GRob Refsnyder 54GJarren Duran 27G
RFAlex Verdugo 140GAdam Duvall 26GRob Refsnyder 6G
SSTrevor Story 36GYu Chang 33GPablo Reyes 31G
2BChristian Arroyo 62GEnmanuel Valdez 47GLuis Urías 39G
3BRafael Devers 151GLuis Urías 19GJustin Turner 7G
1BTriston Casas 125GJustin Turner 41GBobby Dalbec 15G
STARTERSKutter Crawford 2.4WARChris Sale 2.1WARNick Pivetta 1.9WARBrayan Bello 1.6WARTanner Houck 1.2WAR
CConnor Wong 121GReese McGuire 62GJorge Alfaro 8G
DHJustin Turner 98GMasataka Yoshida 49GJorge Alfaro 7G
BULLPEN★ Kenley Jansen 29svChris Martin 23hJosh Winckowski 19hJohn Schreiber 10hRichard Bleier 2hKaleb Ort 1hMauricio Llovera 0hJoe Jacques 0h
CConnor Wong 121 · Reese McGuire 62 · Jorge Alfaro 8
1BTriston Casas 125 · Justin Turner 41 · Bobby Dalbec 15
2BChristian Arroyo 62 · Enmanuel Valdez 47 · Luis Urías 39
3BRafael Devers 151 · Luis Urías 19 · Justin Turner 7
SSTrevor Story 36 · Yu Chang 33 · Pablo Reyes 31
LFMasataka Yoshida 87 · Rob Refsnyder 54 · Jarren Duran 27
CFJarren Duran 75 · Adam Duvall 61 · Ceddanne Rafaela 20
RFAlex Verdugo 140 · Adam Duvall 26 · Rob Refsnyder 6
DHJustin Turner 98 · Masataka Yoshida 49 · Jorge Alfaro 7
SPKutter Crawford 2.4 · Chris Sale 2.1 · Nick Pivetta 1.9 · Brayan Bello 1.6 · Tanner Houck 1.2
BP★ Kenley Jansen 29 · Chris Martin 23 · Josh Winckowski 19 · John Schreiber 10 · Richard Bleier 2 · Kaleb Ort 1 · Mauricio Llovera 0 · Joe Jacques 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2023 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Rafael Devers 26 FA-elig 1533.5 17.5 -3.5
Jarren Duran 26 pre-arb 1022.5 0.6 +9.2
Kutter Crawford 27 pre-arb 322.4 0.7 +8.9
Chris Sale 34 FA-elig 202.1 27.5 -19.2
Nick Pivetta 30 FA-elig 381.9 5.3 +2.0
Triston Casas 23 pre-arb 1321.8 0.7 +6.3
Brayan Bello 24 pre-arb 281.6 0.7 +5.5
Adam Duvall 34 FA-elig 921.6 7.0 -0.8
Alex Verdugo 27 FA-elig 1421.6 6.3 -0.1
Chris Martin 37 FA-elig 551.5 8.0 -2.1
Tanner Houck 27 arb 211.2 0.7 +4.0
Justin Turner 38 FA-elig 1461.2 8.3 -3.6
Kenley Jansen 35 FA-elig 511.1 16.0 -11.7
James Paxton 34 FA-elig 191.0 4.0 +0.1
Garrett Whitlock 27 pre-arb 220.8 1.2 +2.0
Josh Winckowski 25 pre-arb 600.8 0.7 +2.4
Masataka Yoshida 29 pre-arb 1400.8 15.6 -12.6
Brennan Bernardino 31 pre-arb 550.7 0.6 +2.4
Wilyer Abreu 24 – 280.6 0.2 +2.3
Pablo Reyes 29 pre-arb 640.5 0.5 +1.6
Reese McGuire 28 arb 720.5 1.2 +0.9
Rob Refsnyder 32 FA-elig 890.4 1.2 +0.5
Chris Murphy 25 – 200.4 0.3 +1.2
Enmanuel Valdez 24 – 490.3 0.3 +1.1
Trevor Story 30 FA-elig 430.3 20.0 -18.6
Connor Wong 27 pre-arb 1260.3 0.7 +0.3
Raimel Tapia↔ MIL 29 FA-elig 390.3 1.2 -0.2
Luis Urías↔ MIL 26 arb 320.2 2.9 -2.1
Ryan Sherriff 33 – 50.1 0.0 +0.5
Mauricio Llovera↔ SFG 27 pre-arb 250.1 0.2 +0.3
Ceddanne Rafaela 22 – 280.1 0.1 +0.3
John Schreiber 29 arb 460.1 0.8 -0.4
Joe Jacques 28 – 230.1 0.3 -0.1
Ryan Brasier↔ LAD 35 FA-elig 200.0 0.7 -0.5
Yu Chang 27 arb 390.0 0.8 -0.7
Nick Robertson↔ LAD 24 – 90.0 0.1 +0.1
Brandon Walter 26 – 90.0 0.1 -0.0
Zack Littell↔ TBR 27 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Jake Faria 29 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Joely Rodríguez 31 FA-elig 11-0.0 1.5 -1.6
Zack Kelly 28 pre-arb 8-0.1 0.7 -1.0
Dinelson Lamet↔ COL 30 FA-elig 1-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Caleb Hamilton 28 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Zack Weiss↔ ANA 31 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Tayler Scott↔ LAD 31 – 4-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Richard Bleier 36 FA-elig 27-0.1 3.5 -4.0
Jorge Alfaro↔ COL 30 – 8-0.1 0.0 -0.6
Matt Dermody 32 pre-arb 1-0.2 0.0 -0.7
Justin Garza 29 pre-arb 17-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Kaleb Ort 31 pre-arb 21-0.2 0.7 -1.5
Bobby Dalbec 28 pre-arb 21-0.2 0.1 -1.0
David Hamilton 25 – 15-0.2 0.1 -1.0
Christian Arroyo 28 FA-elig 66-0.3 2.0 -3.2
Kyle Barraclough 33 arb 3-0.4 0.0 -1.8
Corey Kluber 37 FA-elig 15-0.8 10.0 -13.2
Enrique Hernández↔ LAD 31 FA-elig 86-1.3 6.1 -11.3

Key additions (new vs 2022)

PlayerfWAR
Adam Duvall1.6
Chris Martin1.5
Justin Turner1.2
Kenley Jansen1.1
James Paxton1.0
Masataka Yoshida0.8

Key subtractions (gone from 2022)

Player2022 fWAR
Xander Bogaerts6.0
Rich Hill1.8
Christian Vázquez1.7
Michael Wacha1.5
J.D. Martinez1.4
Nathan Eovaldi1.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2023 payroll
$178.8M
2024 guaranteed
$73.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2023, 2023–2029. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2023; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Chris Sale3412.061$27.5MFREE AGENT
Trevor Story307.000$20.0M$22.5M$22.5M$25.0MOPT-OUT$25.0M$25.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Rafael Devers265.070$17.5M$29.3M$15.4M$27.0M$28.5M$28.5M$28.5M
Kenley Jansen3512.072$16.0MFREE AGENT
Masataka Yoshida290.000$15.6M$18.6M$18.6M$18.6M$18.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Kluber3710.074$10.0MFREE AGENT
Justin Turner3812.045$8.3MFREE AGENT
Adam Duvall346.151$7.0MFREE AGENT
Enrique Hernández318.054$6.1MFREE AGENT
James Paxton348.151$4.0MFREE AGENT
Richard Bleier367.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Garrett Whitlock272.000$1.2M$3.5M$5.5M$7.5M$8.2MCLUB$10.5MCLUBFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Chris Martin375.133$8.0MFREE AGENT
Alex Verdugo274.078$6.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Pivetta304.166$5.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Urías263.120$2.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Arroyo284.036$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Joely Rodríguez313.096$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reese McGuire283.027$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raimel Tapia295.020$1.2MFREE AGENT
Rob Refsnyder324.048$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Yu Chang274.000$850kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Brasier355.109$678kFREE AGENT
Dinelson Lamet305.070$294kFREE AGENT
Jorge Alfaro305.083$45kFREE AGENT
Zack Littell273.067$39kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Barraclough334.089$19kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Faria295.107$8kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
John Schreiber292.027$750kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Houck271.100$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kutter Crawford270.136$730kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brayan Bello240.082$730kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Triston Casas230.032$724kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Kelly280.038$724kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kaleb Ort310.072$722kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Wong270.079$722kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Winckowski250.074$722kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarren Duran260.160$646kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brennan Bernardino310.005$569kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pablo Reyes291.073$546kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Murphy250.000$314kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Jacques280.000$271kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enmanuel Valdez240.000$255kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Garza290.102$213kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mauricio Llovera270.155$213kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilyer Abreu240.000$155kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ceddanne Rafaela220.000$132kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Walter260.000$124kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Dalbec282.081$124kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Hamilton250.000$74kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Robertson240.000$72kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Hamilton280.064$54kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Weiss310.044$46kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Sherriff332.029$31kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tayler Scott310.125$21kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Dermody320.110$4kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2023; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.