BOS⇄MIL

BOSBOS Chaim Bloom net −$2.4M net +0.2

received +$30.4M+$30.4M ± $31M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 5.8 ± 4 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2023 odds 4% → 4% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luis Urías2B/3B·26y·R/R

+$30.2M+$30.2M± $31M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 5.8± 4 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.93/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Matt Arnold net +$2.4M net -0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2023 odds 17% → 17% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bradley BlalockP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#977 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.