RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

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President of baseball ops: Chaim Bloom · GM: Brian O'Halloran

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.38× league · TAB -9.7
-9.7TAB — talent above budget24th/30
-8.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)23rd/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars24th/30
-6.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag18th/30
42%dead money %21st/30
0.481win %17th/30
28.6roster fWAR18th/30
-93surplus $M (value vs cost)30th/30
$198Mpayroll $M6th/30

Roster

CFEnrique Hernández 80GJarren Duran 51GRob Refsnyder 17G
LFTommy Pham 134GAlex Verdugo 102GFranchy Cordero 12G
RFAlex Verdugo 52GRob Refsnyder 28GFranchy Cordero 26G
SSXander Bogaerts 146GYu Chang 16GChristian Arroyo 14G
2BTrevor Story 94GYu Chang 43GChristian Arroyo 40G
3BRafael Devers 138GBobby Dalbec 24GChristian Arroyo 10G
1BEric Hosmer 102GBobby Dalbec 89GFranchy Cordero 53G
STARTERSRich Hill 1.8WARMichael Wacha 1.5WARNick Pivetta 1.5WARGarrett Whitlock 1.4WARBrayan Bello 1.3WAR
CReese McGuire 84GConnor Wong 20G
DHJ.D. Martinez 139GTommy Pham 10GRob Refsnyder 7G
BULLPEN★ John Schreiber 8svRyan Brasier 13hMatt Strahm 13hJeurys Familia 7hMatt Barnes 4hHirokazu Sawamura 3hTyler Danish 3hTanner Houck 1h
CReese McGuire 84 · Connor Wong 20
1BEric Hosmer 102 · Bobby Dalbec 89 · Franchy Cordero 53
2BTrevor Story 94 · Yu Chang 43 · Christian Arroyo 40
3BRafael Devers 138 · Bobby Dalbec 24 · Christian Arroyo 10
SSXander Bogaerts 146 · Yu Chang 16 · Christian Arroyo 14
LFTommy Pham 134 · Alex Verdugo 102 · Franchy Cordero 12
CFEnrique Hernández 80 · Jarren Duran 51 · Rob Refsnyder 17
RFAlex Verdugo 52 · Rob Refsnyder 28 · Franchy Cordero 26
DHJ.D. Martinez 139 · Tommy Pham 10 · Rob Refsnyder 7
SPRich Hill 1.8 · Michael Wacha 1.5 · Nick Pivetta 1.5 · Garrett Whitlock 1.4 · Brayan Bello 1.3
BP★ John Schreiber 8 · Ryan Brasier 13 · Matt Strahm 13 · Jeurys Familia 7 · Matt Barnes 4 · Hirokazu Sawamura 3 · Tyler Danish 3 · Tanner Houck 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2022 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Xander Bogaerts 29 FA-elig 1506.0 20.0 +2.0
Rafael Devers 25 arb 1415.0 11.2 +7.2
Trevor Story 29 FA-elig 942.5 20.0 -10.7
Rich Hill 42 FA-elig 261.8 5.0 +1.5
John Schreiber 28 pre-arb 641.8 0.6 +5.8
Christian Vázquez↔ HOU 31 FA-elig 841.7 4.9 +1.4
Michael Wacha 30 FA-elig 231.5 7.0 -1.4
Nick Pivetta 29 arb 331.5 2.6 +2.9
J.D. Martinez 34 FA-elig 1391.4 19.4 -14.1
Garrett Whitlock 26 pre-arb 311.4 0.7 +4.4
Brayan Bello 23 – 131.3 0.3 +4.3
Reese McGuire↔ CHW 27 pre-arb 361.3 0.2 +4.4
Alex Verdugo 26 arb 1521.1 3.5 +0.3
Rob Refsnyder 31 FA-elig 571.0 0.1 +3.7
Nathan Eovaldi 32 FA-elig 201.0 17.0 -13.2
Tanner Houck 26 pre-arb 320.7 0.7 +1.9
Ryan Brasier 34 FA-elig 680.5 1.4 +0.5
Kutter Crawford 26 pre-arb 210.5 0.5 +1.4
Triston Casas 22 – 270.4 0.1 +1.4
Matt Strahm 30 FA-elig 500.3 3.0 -1.8
Christian Arroyo 27 arb 870.3 1.2 -0.1
Austin Davis↔ MIN 29 – 500.3 0.5 +0.5
Enrique Hernández 30 FA-elig 930.3 8.0 -7.0
Chris Sale 33 FA-elig 20.2 30.0 -29.4
Jaylin Davis 27 pre-arb 120.2 0.1 +0.5
Tommy Pham↔ CIN 34 FA-elig 530.1 2.2 -1.7
Matt Barnes 32 FA-elig 440.1 8.1 -7.7
Yu Chang↔ CLE 26 – 110.1 – –
Phillips Valdez 30 – 130.0 0.2 -0.1
Connor Wong 26 pre-arb 270.0 0.2 -0.1
Hirokazu Sawamura 34 pre-arb 490.0 1.2 -1.1
Zack Kelly 27 – 13-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Josh Winckowski 24 – 15-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Eric Hosmer↔ SDP 32 FA-elig 14-0.0 2.8 -2.9
Abraham Almonte 33 arb 15-0.0 0.1 -0.3
Michael Feliz 29 FA-elig 1-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Jeurys Familia↔ PHI 32 FA-elig 10-0.1 1.2 -1.7
Jarren Duran 25 pre-arb 58-0.1 0.3 -0.8
Kaleb Ort 30 pre-arb 25-0.1 0.3 -0.8
Frank German 24 – 5-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Bobby Dalbec 27 pre-arb 117-0.2 0.6 -1.3
Eduard Bazardo 26 pre-arb 12-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Connor Seabold 26 pre-arb 5-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Jonathan Araúz↔ BAL 23 – 6-0.2 0.1 -1.0
Yolmer Sánchez↔ NYM 30 – 14-0.3 0.1 -1.3
Franchy Cordero 27 arb 84-0.3 0.6 -1.9
Jeter Downs 23 – 14-0.3 0.1 -1.4
Tyler Danish 27 pre-arb 32-0.4 0.6 -2.0
Kevin Plawecki↔ TEX 31 FA-elig 61-0.4 2.1 -3.5
Jackie Bradley Jr.↔ TOR 32 FA-elig 92-0.4 12.2 -13.7
Darwinzon Hernández 25 pre-arb 7-0.5 0.1 -1.8
Jake Diekman↔ CHW 35 FA-elig 44-0.5 2.2 -4.0
Hansel Robles 31 FA-elig 26-0.6 2.2 -4.6
Travis Shaw 32 FA-elig 7-0.6 0.7 -3.1

Key additions (new vs 2021)

PlayerfWAR
Trevor Story2.5
Rich Hill1.8
Michael Wacha1.5
Brayan Bello1.3
Reese McGuire1.3
Rob Refsnyder1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2021)

Player2021 fWAR
Eduardo Rodriguez3.9
Hunter Renfroe2.6
Garrett Richards1.1
Kyle Schwarber1.1
Jose Iglesias0.7
Martín Pérez0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2022 payroll
$197.5M
2023 guaranteed
$20.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2022, 2022–2028. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2022; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Chris Sale3311.061$30.0MFREE AGENT
Trevor Story296.000$20.0M$20.0M$22.5M$22.5M$25.0MOPT-OUT$25.0M$25.0MCLUB
Xander Bogaerts298.042$20.0MFREE AGENT
J.D. Martinez3410.036$19.4MFREE AGENT
Nathan Eovaldi3210.013$17.0MFREE AGENT
Jackie Bradley Jr.329.000$12.2MFREE AGENT
Matt Barnes326.110$8.1MFREE AGENT
Enrique Hernández307.054$8.0MFREE AGENT
Michael Wacha308.062$7.0MFREE AGENT
Rich Hill4212.127$5.0MFREE AGENT
Christian Vázquez317.031$4.9MCLUBFREE AGENT
Eric Hosmer3210.146$2.8MFREE AGENT
Hansel Robles317.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Tommy Pham346.107$2.2MFREE AGENT
Jake Diekman359.050$2.2MFREE AGENT
Jeurys Familia3210.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Travis Shaw327.000$700kFREE AGENT
Michael Feliz297.000$100kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Rafael Devers254.070$11.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Verdugo263.078$3.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Strahm305.064$3.0MFREE AGENT
Nick Pivetta293.166$2.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Plawecki315.167$2.1MFREE AGENT
Ryan Brasier344.109$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Arroyo273.036$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Franchy Cordero273.122$630kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Abraham Almonte334.155$108kARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Refsnyder313.091$100kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yolmer Sánchez305.040$92kFREE AGENT
Yu Chang263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (24)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Hirokazu Sawamura341.000$1.2MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Whitlock261.000$720kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Houck260.100$716kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Dalbec271.081$643kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Schreiber281.041$600kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Danish270.051$581kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Davis292.105$548kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kutter Crawford260.002$548kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brayan Bello230.000$312kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarren Duran250.080$304kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Winckowski240.000$277kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kaleb Ort300.005$265kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phillips Valdez301.166$203kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Wong260.027$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reese McGuire272.027$189kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Kelly270.000$143kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduard Bazardo260.082$131kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Triston Casas220.000$119kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Seabold260.023$108kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jaylin Davis270.159$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Araúz231.060$94kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeter Downs230.000$92kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darwinzon Hernández252.080$92kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Frank German24–$73k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2022; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.