CHW⇄DET⇄BOS

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$31.2M net +4.3

received +$13.6M+$13.6M ± $34M expected surplus · +$20.8M realized received 4.8 ± 4 expected · 5.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2013 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Avisaíl GarcíaOF·22y·R/R

+$10.0M+$10.0M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$20.0M 2.2± 2 exp WARrealized 5.2

Prior

Composite #74.0 pedigree (Baseball America #74 (2013)) → 0.41/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.40/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

J. B. WendelkenP·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#421 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Frankie MontasP·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Cleuluis Rondon

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net −$8.0M net +1.1

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $31M expected surplus · +$12.0M realized received 0.3 ± 4 expected · 6.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2013 odds 95% → 95% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jose IglesiasSS·23y·R/R

−$2.9M−$2.9M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$12.0M 0.3± 4 exp WARrealized 6.3

Prior

Composite #52.0 pedigree (Baseball America #52 (2011)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.9/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.05/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Ben Cherington net −$23.2M net -5.4

received +$37.6M+$37.6M ± $28M expected surplus · −$10.4M realized received 5.0 ± 4 expected · 1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2013 odds 90% → 91% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jake PeavyP·32y·R/R

+$30.2M+$30.2M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$10.4M 2.9± 1 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.4/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

2.92/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Brayan VillarrealP·26y·R/R

+$7.3M+$7.3M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.