BOS⇄KCR

BOSBOS Ben Cherington net +$2.4M net +0.4

received +$16.8M+$16.8M ± $45M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 3.2 ± 6 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2013 odds 90% → 91% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Quintin BerryOF·28y·L/L

+$16.9M+$16.9M± $45M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 3.2± 6 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

#157 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.69/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net −$2.4M net -0.4

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2013 odds 26% → 24% (-1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Clayton MortensenP·28y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#36 overall draft pick → 0.26/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

-0.08/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.