PHI⇄BOS

PHIPHI Ruben Amaro net +$0.8M net +0.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Nefi OgandoP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Ben Cherington net −$0.8M net +0.0

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $0M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

John McDonaldSS·38y·R/R

−$0.7M−$0.7M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.49/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.