MIL⇄BAL

MILMIL David Stearns net +$1.6M net +0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2018 odds 55% → 57% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

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BALBAL Dan Duquette net −$1.6M net -0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $17M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2018 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Andrew SusacC·28y·R/R

−$0.1M−$0.1M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.71 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.