RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

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GM: Dan Duquette

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.88× league · TAB +3.7
+3.7TAB — talent above budget13th/30
+4.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)12th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars19th/30
-4.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag15th/30
12%dead money %2nd/30
0.525win %14th/30
36.4roster fWAR13th/30
+6surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/30
$92Mpayroll $M15th/30

Roster

CFAdam Jones 156GChris Dickerson 5GNate McLouth 3G
LFNate McLouth 136GMichael Morse 19GChris Dickerson 17G
RFNick Markakis 155GMichael Morse 55GChris Dickerson 6G
SSJ.J. Hardy 159GRyan Flaherty 9GAlexi Casilla 2G
2BRyan Flaherty 65GBrian Roberts 60GAlexi Casilla 51G
3BManny Machado 156GRyan Flaherty 7GDanny Valencia 6G
1BChris Davis 155GRyan Flaherty 4GSteve Pearce 3G
STARTERSWei-Yin Chen 2.0WARChris Tillman 1.9WARMiguel González 1.6WARScott Feldman 1.0WARBud Norris 0.9WAR
CMatt Wieters 140GTaylor Teagarden 23GChris Snyder 8G
DHDanny Valencia 41GNolan Reimold 28GChris Dickerson 20G
BULLPEN★ Jim Johnson 50svTommy Hunter 21hDarren O'Day 20hBrian Matusz 18hTroy Patton 8hFrancisco Rodríguez 5hJosh Stinson 2hT.J. McFarland 0h
CMatt Wieters 140 · Taylor Teagarden 23 · Chris Snyder 8
1BChris Davis 155 · Ryan Flaherty 4 · Steve Pearce 3
2BRyan Flaherty 65 · Brian Roberts 60 · Alexi Casilla 51
3BManny Machado 156 · Ryan Flaherty 7 · Danny Valencia 6
SSJ.J. Hardy 159 · Ryan Flaherty 9 · Alexi Casilla 2
LFNate McLouth 136 · Michael Morse 19 · Chris Dickerson 17
CFAdam Jones 156 · Chris Dickerson 5 · Nate McLouth 3
RFNick Markakis 155 · Michael Morse 55 · Chris Dickerson 6
DHDanny Valencia 41 · Nolan Reimold 28 · Chris Dickerson 20
SPWei-Yin Chen 2.0 · Chris Tillman 1.9 · Miguel González 1.6 · Scott Feldman 1.0 · Bud Norris 0.9
BP★ Jim Johnson 50 · Tommy Hunter 21 · Darren O'Day 20 · Brian Matusz 18 · Troy Patton 8 · Francisco Rodríguez 5 · Josh Stinson 2 · T.J. McFarland 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2013 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Chris Davis 27 arb 1607.0 3.3 +15.6
Manny Machado 20 pre-arb 1565.0 0.5 +12.9
Adam Jones 27 FA-elig 1604.9 8.5 +4.7
J.J. Hardy 30 FA-elig 1593.2 7.0 +1.6
Nate McLouth 31 FA-elig 1462.2 2.0 +4.0
Wei-Yin Chen 27 pre-arb 232.0 3.6 +1.7
Chris Tillman 25 arb 331.9 0.5 +4.5
Miguel González 29 pre-arb 301.6 0.5 +3.9
Matt Wieters 27 arb 1481.6 5.5 -1.2
Ryan Flaherty 26 pre-arb 851.2 0.5 +2.7
Brian Roberts 35 FA-elig 771.1 10.0 -7.0
Scott Feldman↔ CHC 30 FA-elig 161.0 3.1 -0.3
Brian Matusz 26 arb 651.0 1.6 +1.1
Bud Norris↔ HOU 28 arb 110.9 1.0 +1.5
Danny Valencia 28 pre-arb 520.9 0.3 +2.2
Jim Johnson 30 FA-elig 740.9 6.5 -4.2
Steve Pearce 30 FA-elig 440.8 0.7 +1.5
Darren O'Day 30 arb 680.7 2.2 -0.3
Tommy Hunter 26 arb 680.7 1.8 +0.0
Jason Hammel 30 FA-elig 260.6 6.8 -5.2
Nick Markakis 29 FA-elig 1600.5 15.0 -13.5
T.J. McFarland 24 pre-arb 380.4 0.5 +0.6
Kevin Gausman 22 – 200.4 0.3 +0.7
Chris Dickerson 31 pre-arb 560.2 0.4 +0.3
Jake Arrieta↔ CHC 27 arb 50.2 0.2 +0.3
Zack Britton 25 pre-arb 80.1 0.1 +0.1
Jair Jurrjens 27 arb 20.1 0.5 -0.3
Alexi Casilla 28 FA-elig 620.0 1.7 -1.6
Steve Johnson 25 pre-arb 90.0 0.5 -0.5
Steve Clevenger↔ CHC 27 pre-arb 40.0 0.2 -0.1
Jonathan Schoop 21 – 50.0 0.1 -0.1
Alex Burnett↔ CHC 25 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Francisco Rodríguez↔ MIL 31 FA-elig 23-0.0 0.6 -0.6
Zach Clark 29 – 1-0.0 – –
Troy Patton 27 FA-elig 56-0.0 0.8 -0.9
Chris Snyder 32 – 9-0.0 – –
Josh Stinson 25 – 11-0.1 – –
Yamaico Navarro 25 – 8-0.1 – –
Luis Ayala↔ ATL 35 FA-elig 2-0.1 0.1 -0.2
L.J. Hoes↔ HOU 23 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Jairo Asencio 30 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Dan Johnson 33 arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Mike Belfiore 24 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Travis Ishikawa↔ NYY 29 – 6-0.2 0.0 -0.7
Jason Pridie 29 pre-arb 4-0.3 0.0 -0.8
Henry Urrutia 26 – 24-0.3 0.2 -1.1
Pedro Strop↔ CHC 28 arb 29-0.3 0.2 -1.1
Wilson Betemit 31 FA-elig 6-0.3 1.8 -2.7
Taylor Teagarden 29 arb 23-0.4 0.7 -1.6
Michael Morse↔ SEA 31 FA-elig 12-0.7 0.9 -2.7
Freddy Garcia↔ ATL 36 – 11-0.8 0.1 -2.1
Nolan Reimold 29 arb 40-0.9 1.0 -3.4

Key additions (new vs 2012)

PlayerfWAR
Scott Feldman1.0
Bud Norris0.9
Danny Valencia0.9
T.J. McFarland0.4
Kevin Gausman0.4
Chris Dickerson0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2012)

Player2012 fWAR
Joe Saunders0.8
Matt Lindstrom0.3
Lew Ford0.1
Nick Johnson0.0
Stu Pomeranz-0.0
Bill Hall-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2013 payroll
$91.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2013, 2013–2019. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Nick Markakis297.000$15.0M$15.0MFREE AGENT
Brian Roberts3510.131$10.0MFREE AGENT
J.J. Hardy3012.164$7.0M$7.0M$11.5M$12.5M$14.0MFREE AGENT
Scott Feldman306.091$3.1MFREE AGENT
Nate McLouth316.152$2.0MFREE AGENT
Wilson Betemit317.107$1.8MFREE AGENT
Michael Morse318.000$920kFREE AGENT
Steve Pearce306.000$700k$700k$3.7M$3.4MFREE AGENT
Francisco Rodríguez319.150$602kFREE AGENT
Freddy Garcia3612.060$88kFREE AGENT
Luis Ayala359.121$51kFREE AGENT
Chris Snyder328.047—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Adam Jones275.139$8.5MFREE AGENT
Jason Hammel305.153$6.8MFREE AGENT
Jim Johnson304.165$6.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Wieters273.129$5.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Davis273.061$3.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darren O'Day304.103$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Hunter263.090$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alexi Casilla285.038$1.7MFREE AGENT
Bud Norris283.068$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nolan Reimold293.044$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Teagarden293.020$650kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jair Jurrjens274.142$490kARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Johnson334.076$48kARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Ishikawa293.072$25kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Wei-Yin Chen271.000$3.6MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Matusz262.156$1.6MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Troy Patton272.150$815kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Tillman251.113$508kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel González291.107$502kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Johnson251.046$495kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manny Machado200.056$495kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Flaherty261.000$494kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
T.J. McFarland240.000$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Dickerson312.171$359kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Gausman220.000$348kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Valencia282.020$281kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Strop281.156$221kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Urrutia261.084$195kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Arrieta272.066$184kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Clevenger272.123$165kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Britton251.117$150kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Schoop210.000$75kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jairo Asencio300.049$43kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Belfiore24–$32k
Jason Pridie291.047$16kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Burnett252.135$15kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
L.J. Hoes230.023$4kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yamaico Navarro252.001—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Stinson251.090—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Clark29–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2013; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.