SEA⇄BAL

SEASEA Jack Zduriencik net +$5.6M net +0.7

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $31M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.5 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2013 odds 2% → 3% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Xavier AveryOF·23y·L/L

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.5± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#50 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.6/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Dan Duquette net −$5.6M net -0.7

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $10M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 1.1 ± 1 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2013 odds 27% → 24% (-3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Morse1B/OF·31y·R/R

+$4.7M+$4.7M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.1± 1 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.10/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.