PIT⇄BAL

PITPIT Neal Huntington net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $25M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.6 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Russ Canzler1B/DH/OF·27y·R/R

−$0.6M−$0.6M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.6± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#906 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Dan Duquette net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $52M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.1 ± 6 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Tim AldersonP·24y·R/R

+$11.5M+$11.5M± $52M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.1± 6 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#22 overall draft pick → 0.52/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.52/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.