BAL⇄ANA

BALBAL Dan Duquette net −$0.8M net +0.0

received +$4.8M+$4.0M ± $13M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.4 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Chris SnyderC·32y·R/R

+$5.0M+$4.3M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.4± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.99/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Jerry Dipoto net +$0.8M net +0.0

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.4 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Rob DelaneyP·28y·L/R

−$0.9M−$0.9M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.