BAL⇄KCR

BALBAL Dan Duquette net +$2.4M net +0.4

received +$26.4M+$26.4M ± $46M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 4.8 ± 6 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2014 odds 39% → 43% (+4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David LoughOF·28y·L/L

+$26.5M+$26.5M± $46M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 4.8± 6 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.97/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net −$2.4M net -0.4

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2014 odds 24% → 21% (-2.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Danny Valencia3B·29y·R/R

+$2.6M+$2.6M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.34/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.