BAL⇄NYM

BALBAL Syd Thrift net +$16.0M net +2.8

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $28M expected surplus · +$16.0M realized received 1.7 ± 4 expected · 2.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2002 odds 1% → 1% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gary MatthewsOF·27y·B/R

+$8.1M+$8.1M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$16.0M 1.7± 4 exp WARrealized 2.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net −$16.0M net -2.8

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $18M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.5 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2002 odds 14% → 7% (-6.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John BaleP·28y·L/L

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.5± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#129 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.56 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.