BAL⇄CHW

BALBAL Syd Thrift net +$12.0M net +0.9

received +$36.0M+$36.0M ± $31M expected surplus · +$12.8M realized received 4.4 ± 4 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2002 odds 1% → 1% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris SingletonOF·29y·L/L

+$35.9M+$35.9M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$12.8M 4.4± 4 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.3/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.51/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$12.0M net -0.9

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $34M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2002 odds 32% → 23% (-9.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Willie Harris2B/OF·24y·L/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $34M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

#727 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -6.9/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.13/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.