RRosternomics

Braves ATL

GM: Frank Wren

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.14× league · TAB -3.6
-3.6TAB — talent above budget19th/30
-11.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)26th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-7.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag25th/30
44%dead money %21st/30
0.444win %24th/30
32.3roster fWAR18th/30
-30surplus $M (value vs cost)24th/30
$100Mpayroll $M10th/30

Roster

CFMark Kotsay 84GGrégor Blanco 69GJosh Anderson 30G
LFGrégor Blanco 77GMatt Diaz 37GOmar Infante 34G
RFJeff Francoeur 152GBrandon Jones 7GGrégor Blanco 5G
SSYunel Escobar 126GBrent Lillibridge 23GOmar Infante 20G
2BKelly Johnson 144GMartín Prado 17GOmar Infante 10G
3BChipper Jones 115GOmar Infante 32GMartín Prado 24G
1BCasey Kotchman 141GMartín Prado 17GGreg Norton 11G
STARTERSJair Jurrjens 3.3WARJorge Campillo 2.0WARTim Hudson 1.9WARJohn Smoltz 0.8WARMike Hampton 0.4WAR
CBrian McCann 138GCorky Miller 29GClint Sammons 22G
DHGreg Norton 8GChipper Jones 3G
BULLPEN Michael Gonzalez 14svWill Ohman 23hJeff Bennett 15hBlaine Boyer 14hJulian Tavarez 6hManny Acosta 4hRoyce Ring 4hBuddy Carlyle 0h
CBrian McCann 138 · Corky Miller 29 · Clint Sammons 22
1BCasey Kotchman 141 · Martín Prado 17 · Greg Norton 11
2BKelly Johnson 144 · Martín Prado 17 · Omar Infante 10
3BChipper Jones 115 · Omar Infante 32 · Martín Prado 24
SSYunel Escobar 126 · Brent Lillibridge 23 · Omar Infante 20
LFGrégor Blanco 77 · Matt Diaz 37 · Omar Infante 34
CFMark Kotsay 84 · Grégor Blanco 69 · Josh Anderson 30
RFJeff Francoeur 152 · Brandon Jones 7 · Grégor Blanco 5
DHGreg Norton 8 · Chipper Jones 3
SPJair Jurrjens 3.3 · Jorge Campillo 2.0 · Tim Hudson 1.9 · John Smoltz 0.8 · Mike Hampton 0.4
BP Michael Gonzalez 14 · Will Ohman 23 · Jeff Bennett 15 · Blaine Boyer 14 · Julian Tavarez 6 · Manny Acosta 4 · Royce Ring 4 · Buddy Carlyle 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2008 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Brian McCann 24 arb 1458.3 1.0 +17.9
Chipper Jones Jr. 36 FA-elig 1287.1 12.3 +3.9
Mark Teixeira↔ ANA 28 arb 1033.4 8.2 -0.4
Jair Jurrjens 22 pre-arb 373.3 0.4 +7.1
Yunel Escobar 25 pre-arb 1362.8 0.4 +5.9
Kelly Johnson 26 arb 1502.6 0.4 +5.6
Jorge Campillo 29 392.0
Tim Hudson 32 FA-elig 231.9 15.5 -11.2
Grégor Blanco 24 pre-arb 1441.2 0.4 +2.3
Martín Prado 24 pre-arb 781.1 0.4 +2.2
Will Ohman 30 FA-elig 830.9 1.6 +0.4
John Smoltz 41 FA-elig 60.8 14.0 -12.1
Omar Infante 26 FA-elig 960.7 1.4 +0.2
Josh Anderson 25 400.7
Buddy Carlyle 30 450.5 0.4 +0.8
Jeff Bennett 28 arb 720.5 0.4 +0.8
Mark Kotsay↔ BOS 32 FA-elig 880.5 5.6 -4.6
Mike Hampton 35 FA-elig 130.4 16.0 -15.0
Jorge Julio↔ CLE 29 FA-elig 120.2 0.4 +0.1
Vladimir Nunez 33 230.2
Greg Norton↔ SEA 35 1110.2
Michael Gonzalez 30 arb 360.1 2.4 -2.1
Rafael Soriano 28 FA-elig 140.1 2.6 -2.4
James Parr 22 60.1
Phil Stockman 28 60.1
Matt DeSalvo 27 20.0
Brayan Peña 26 arb 14-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Blaine Boyer 26 arb 76-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Julian Tavarez↔ BOS 35 FA-elig 36-0.1 2.7 -2.8
Peter Moylan 29 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.4 -0.5
Francisley Bueno 27 1-0.1
Royce Ring 27 arb 42-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Ruben Gotay 25 arb 88-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Jo-Jo Reyes 23 25-0.1
Charlie Morton 24 16-0.2 0.2 -0.6
Elmer Dessens 37 4-0.2
Chris Resop 25 arb 16-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Jason Perry 27 4-0.2
Brent Lillibridge 24 29-0.2
Jeff Ridgway 27 10-0.2
Casey Kotchman↔ ANA 25 arb 43-0.2 0.4 -1.0
Clint Sammons 25 23-0.4
Corky Miller 32 FA-elig 31-0.4 0.4 -1.4
Brandon Jones 24 41-0.5
Tom Glavine 42 FA-elig 14-0.6 8.0 -9.3
Manny Acosta 27 pre-arb 46-0.6 0.4 -1.8
Matt Diaz 30 arb 43-0.8 1.2 -3.1
Chuck James 26 arb 7-0.9 0.4 -2.5
Jeff Francoeur 24 arb 155-1.3 0.5 -3.3

Key additions (new vs 2007)

PlayerfWAR
Jair Jurrjens3.3
Jorge Campillo2.0
Grégor Blanco1.2
Will Ohman0.9
Omar Infante0.7
Josh Anderson0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2007)

Player2007 fWAR
Edgar Renteria4.0
Andruw Jones3.3
Willie Harris1.4
Kyle Davies0.6
Tyler Yates0.5
Oscar Villarreal0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2008 payroll
$100.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 2008, 2008–2014. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Mike Hampton3515.000$16.0MFREE AGENT
Tim Hudson329.000$15.5M$15.5M$9.0M$9.0M$9.0M$9.0MFREE AGENT
John Smoltz4120.000$14.0MFREE AGENT
Chipper Jones Jr.3615.000$12.3M$10.0M$14.0M$14.0M$13.0MFREE AGENT
Tom Glavine4221.000$8.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Kotsay3211.000$5.6MFREE AGENT
Julian Tavarez3515.000$2.7MFREE AGENT
Rafael Soriano286.000$2.6M$6.3MFREE AGENT
Will Ohman308.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Omar Infante266.000$1.4M$1.9M$2.2MFREE AGENT
Jorge Julio297.000$444kFREE AGENT
Corky Miller327.000$400kFREE AGENT
Buddy Carlyle309.000$390k$425kFREE AGENT
Elmer Dessens3712.000FREE AGENT
Greg Norton3512.000$800kFREE AGENT
Vladimir Nunez3310.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Mark Teixeira285.000$8.2MFREE AGENT
Michael Gonzalez305.000$2.4MFREE AGENT
Matt Diaz305.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Brian McCann243.000$967kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Francoeur243.000$460kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Kotchman254.000$436kARB 3FREE AGENT
Kelly Johnson263.000$430kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chuck James263.000$428kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ruben Gotay254.000$403kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Bennett284.000$400kARB 3FREE AGENT
Royce Ring273.000$398kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Resop253.000$390kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blaine Boyer263.000$390kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brayan Peña263.000$390kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Campillo293.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Peter Moylan292.000$410kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yunel Escobar251.000$402kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manny Acosta271.000$392kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Martín Prado242.000$390kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Grégor Blanco240.000$390kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jair Jurrjens221.000$390kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Charlie Morton240.000$220kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Stockman28
Jason Perry27
James Parr220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Jones24
Matt DeSalvo27
Brent Lillibridge240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Ridgway27
Jo-Jo Reyes231.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clint Sammons251.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Anderson251.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisley Bueno270.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Braves 2008; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3