SEA⇄ATL

SEASEA Lee Pelekoudas net +$2.4M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $7M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2008 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Nelson Payano

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL Frank Wren net −$2.4M net +0.0

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $8M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2008 odds 10% → 11% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Greg Norton1B/3B·35y·B/R

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.