PIT⇄ATL

PITPIT Neal Huntington net −$2.4M net +0.3

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $10M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2008 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tyler YatesP·30y·R/R

+$0.6M+$0.6M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL Frank Wren net +$2.4M net -0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2008 odds 12% → 11% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Todd RedmondP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#1162 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.