ANA⇄ATL

ANAANA Tony Reagins net +$14.4M net +2.9

received +$32.0M−$7.2M ± $19M expected surplus · +$8.8M realized received 4.6 ± 2 expected · 3.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2008 odds 8% → 17% (+9.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark Teixeira1B·28y·B/R

+$32.0M−$7.6M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 4.6± 2 exp WARrealized 3.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.30/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.5/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

3.06/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL Frank Wren net −$14.4M net -2.9

received +$20.0M+$20.0M ± $54M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 6.7 ± 7 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2008 odds 22% → 11% (-11.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Casey Kotchman1B·25y·L/L

+$17.5M+$17.5M± $48M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 5.4± 6 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.34/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

1.07/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Stephen MarekP·24y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#1193 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.